* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942023 10/12/23 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 23 24 26 30 36 43 48 54 61 69 70 74 75 80 87 V (KT) LAND 25 24 23 24 26 30 36 43 48 54 61 69 70 74 75 80 87 V (KT) LGEM 25 24 23 22 22 22 23 26 29 33 38 44 49 52 54 57 62 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 17 15 13 8 4 9 12 10 9 3 11 17 16 13 12 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 0 0 3 4 10 5 2 1 0 3 2 7 5 3 2 0 SHEAR DIR 234 242 264 271 273 26 111 110 103 88 14 257 266 269 297 291 326 SST (C) 29.7 29.5 29.5 29.4 29.2 29.1 29.3 29.3 28.9 28.8 29.1 29.4 29.4 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.7 POT. INT. (KT) 163 159 159 157 154 152 156 157 150 148 153 157 157 160 159 160 164 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.9 -53.1 -53.1 -53.4 -53.7 -53.9 -54.2 -54.3 -54.4 -54.2 -54.0 -53.5 -53.4 -53.3 -53.6 -53.6 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 7 7 6 6 5 6 6 7 7 6 6 6 5 6 700-500 MB RH 62 61 62 66 68 69 75 79 79 76 74 71 74 77 80 78 76 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 6 6 7 8 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 9 10 850 MB ENV VOR -13 -10 2 10 13 5 7 7 9 16 20 29 33 25 31 26 23 200 MB DIV 2 -13 -11 0 9 18 51 60 62 49 43 2 26 41 82 91 97 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 -1 0 -1 -2 -3 -4 -3 -3 -1 -2 -1 0 LAND (KM) 541 606 665 736 815 974 1158 1365 1530 1408 1325 1243 1193 1127 1101 1136 1209 LAT (DEG N) 9.9 10.1 10.1 10.1 9.9 9.5 9.0 8.2 7.6 7.3 7.4 7.4 7.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 21.0 21.8 22.4 23.1 23.8 25.2 26.8 28.5 30.3 32.2 33.9 35.5 36.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 6 7 7 8 9 10 9 9 8 7 6 6 4 6 9 HEAT CONTENT 30 31 33 33 30 29 36 44 54 42 43 61 63 65 66 54 38 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 620 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 42.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 10.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. 1. 6. 16. 27. 37. 48. 57. 64. 70. 74. 74. 76. 77. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. -0. -3. -3. -4. -9. -11. -12. -15. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. -0. -0. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 2. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. -9. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -0. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -8. -9. -9. -10. -8. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -1. 1. 5. 11. 18. 23. 29. 36. 44. 45. 49. 50. 55. 62. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 9.9 21.0 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942023 INVEST 10/12/23 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 3.1 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 23.1 45.1 to 6.7 0.57 1.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 31.4 0.0 to 161.7 0.19 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.78 1.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.9 to -3.0 0.42 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 132.6 27.0 to 144.1 0.90 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : -2.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.13 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 108.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.81 1.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.5% 14.8% 9.7% 6.6% 0.0% 0.0% 10.5% 0.0% Logistic: 2.4% 12.0% 7.4% 3.8% 1.8% 6.1% 8.8% 27.6% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.2% Consensus: 1.7% 9.2% 5.8% 3.5% 0.6% 2.1% 6.5% 9.6% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942023 INVEST 10/12/2023 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 24 23 24 26 30 36 43 48 54 61 69 70 74 75 80 87 18HR AGO 25 24 23 24 26 30 36 43 48 54 61 69 70 74 75 80 87 12HR AGO 25 22 21 22 24 28 34 41 46 52 59 67 68 72 73 78 85 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 21 27 34 39 45 52 60 61 65 66 71 78 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT