* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942023 10/12/23 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 25 26 26 29 34 40 46 54 57 58 57 58 62 68 76 V (KT) LAND 25 25 25 26 26 29 34 40 46 54 57 58 57 58 62 68 76 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 24 24 24 25 27 30 34 39 42 43 40 38 39 42 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 15 11 8 4 5 11 11 10 4 14 24 29 24 10 7 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 4 5 5 11 9 3 3 0 4 3 11 7 2 7 4 11 SHEAR DIR 259 261 258 265 260 149 137 131 112 104 253 267 265 277 330 357 334 SST (C) 29.1 29.0 28.9 29.0 29.1 29.4 29.5 29.4 29.4 29.7 29.9 30.1 29.7 29.9 30.2 30.4 30.6 POT. INT. (KT) 153 151 149 151 153 158 160 158 158 164 167 171 163 166 169 169 169 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.0 -53.4 -53.8 -53.9 -54.0 -54.3 -54.5 -54.7 -54.5 -54.3 -53.8 -53.4 -53.2 -53.4 -53.6 -53.8 200 MB VXT (C) -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 7 7 6 6 5 6 7 7 7 8 8 7 7 7 8 700-500 MB RH 64 65 67 72 72 76 78 78 73 70 68 67 69 76 72 70 64 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 8 8 7 7 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 0 4 6 6 6 9 13 17 18 16 18 19 15 30 39 49 28 200 MB DIV -7 -10 1 16 26 47 62 97 96 68 11 11 17 47 67 80 22 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 -1 0 0 -2 -3 -4 -4 -4 0 0 3 2 3 LAND (KM) 739 827 916 1005 1104 1283 1492 1435 1302 1227 1165 1113 1039 935 878 823 780 LAT (DEG N) 9.4 9.2 9.0 8.8 8.6 8.2 7.6 7.1 6.9 7.1 7.2 7.1 6.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 22.8 23.6 24.4 25.2 26.1 27.7 29.5 31.4 33.4 35.2 37.0 38.8 40.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 9 9 9 10 10 9 9 9 9 9 7 6 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 34 32 30 30 33 41 52 53 44 56 63 64 56 49 52 60 71 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 665 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 20.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 9.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 7. 17. 28. 39. 49. 59. 66. 73. 77. 77. 79. 79. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. -0. -1. -4. -11. -18. -24. -24. -24. -23. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 4. 6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. -9. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -11. -12. -13. -13. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -7. -6. -7. -6. -5. -5. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -0. -0. 1. 1. 4. 9. 15. 21. 29. 32. 33. 32. 33. 37. 43. 51. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 9.4 22.8 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942023 INVEST 10/12/23 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.4 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 25.0 45.1 to 6.7 0.52 1.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 31.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.20 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.73 1.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.9 2.9 to -3.0 0.17 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 126.4 27.0 to 144.1 0.85 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 5.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.16 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 76.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.85 1.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.3% 14.0% 9.3% 6.4% 0.0% 0.0% 10.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.8% 4.3% 1.7% 0.7% 0.4% 3.6% 5.7% 26.9% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% Consensus: 1.1% 6.3% 3.7% 2.4% 0.1% 1.2% 5.3% 9.1% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942023 INVEST 10/12/2023 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 25 25 26 26 29 34 40 46 54 57 58 57 58 62 68 76 18HR AGO 25 24 24 25 25 28 33 39 45 53 56 57 56 57 61 67 75 12HR AGO 25 22 21 22 22 25 30 36 42 50 53 54 53 54 58 64 72 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 15 18 23 29 35 43 46 47 46 47 51 57 65 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT