* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942023 10/12/23 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 25 25 26 29 35 42 48 54 55 57 57 59 62 65 73 V (KT) LAND 25 25 25 25 26 29 35 42 48 54 55 57 57 59 62 65 73 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 25 25 25 26 28 31 35 39 40 38 36 35 36 38 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 12 8 3 2 7 9 10 6 8 22 23 26 25 12 13 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 3 6 12 14 11 6 2 8 7 8 13 9 6 7 9 23 SHEAR DIR 261 264 265 265 190 114 122 127 139 187 249 278 289 303 1 64 29 SST (C) 28.9 29.0 29.2 29.3 29.4 29.5 29.4 29.3 29.6 29.9 29.9 29.3 29.1 29.3 29.6 30.0 30.5 POT. INT. (KT) 150 152 155 156 158 160 158 156 162 167 167 156 152 154 159 168 171 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.3 -53.7 -53.6 -53.5 -54.3 -54.1 -54.7 -54.4 -54.5 -53.9 -53.6 -53.2 -53.3 -53.3 -53.7 -53.4 200 MB VXT (C) -0.3 -0.3 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.2 -0.4 -0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 8 8 8 7 7 8 9 700-500 MB RH 64 68 72 70 71 77 76 75 71 68 64 67 69 75 71 69 66 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 6 5 5 4 5 4 5 5 4 5 850 MB ENV VOR 8 10 6 7 6 4 5 11 17 21 25 29 43 44 52 45 24 200 MB DIV 6 19 27 19 33 60 71 66 37 19 2 1 10 57 99 67 5 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 -1 -1 0 -2 -3 -2 -1 -1 0 0 1 1 6 LAND (KM) 886 995 1095 1189 1269 1457 1440 1307 1199 1113 1036 968 856 763 766 837 965 LAT (DEG N) 9.2 9.0 8.8 8.5 8.3 7.7 7.0 6.6 6.5 6.5 6.3 5.9 5.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 24.2 25.2 26.1 26.9 27.6 29.2 31.0 32.8 34.6 36.4 38.2 39.9 41.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 9 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 8 8 5 3 6 8 HEAT CONTENT 30 29 33 37 40 50 56 45 52 62 73 68 58 59 58 53 52 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 743 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 36.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 10.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 7. 17. 28. 39. 50. 60. 68. 74. 79. 79. 81. 81. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. -5. -11. -19. -25. -26. -28. -28. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -6. -6. -5. -3. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 4. 6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. -9. -8. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -8. -10. -12. -13. -14. -14. -15. -16. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -0. -0. 0. 1. 4. 10. 17. 23. 29. 30. 32. 32. 34. 37. 40. 48. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 9.2 24.2 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942023 INVEST 10/12/23 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.2 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 24.6 45.1 to 6.7 0.53 1.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 33.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.21 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.40 0.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.9 to -3.0 0.35 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 129.0 27.0 to 144.1 0.87 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 20.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.24 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 67.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.86 0.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.5% 13.0% 8.4% 5.4% 0.0% 0.0% 10.1% 0.0% Logistic: 1.5% 7.4% 2.8% 0.9% 0.5% 2.9% 7.3% 23.8% Bayesian: 0.2% 1.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.7% Consensus: 1.1% 7.3% 3.8% 2.1% 0.2% 1.0% 5.8% 8.1% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942023 INVEST 10/12/2023 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 25 25 25 26 29 35 42 48 54 55 57 57 59 62 65 73 18HR AGO 25 24 24 24 25 28 34 41 47 53 54 56 56 58 61 64 72 12HR AGO 25 22 21 21 22 25 31 38 44 50 51 53 53 55 58 61 69 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 16 19 25 32 38 44 45 47 47 49 52 55 63 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT