* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SEAN AL192023 10/13/23 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 40 39 39 38 36 35 35 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 40 40 39 39 38 36 35 35 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 40 41 40 39 39 37 35 35 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 20 18 14 11 12 22 23 14 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 5 4 3 3 1 -2 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 259 275 295 325 13 57 79 78 53 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.5 28.5 28.6 28.7 28.6 28.6 28.8 28.9 28.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 144 144 145 147 145 145 147 149 147 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -54.0 -54.0 -53.9 -53.9 -53.8 -53.6 -53.9 -53.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 -0.4 -0.5 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 8 8 9 9 10 10 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 62 59 57 56 57 54 49 49 48 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 12 11 10 8 6 4 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -18 -24 -29 -39 -44 -61 -63 -54 -73 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 12 -24 -20 3 -22 -35 -16 -2 -26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -4 -3 -1 1 1 2 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1712 1669 1632 1625 1626 1648 1665 1602 1532 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 13.8 14.3 14.7 15.3 15.9 17.2 18.3 19.2 20.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 39.1 40.0 40.9 41.6 42.4 43.7 44.8 45.8 47.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 9 9 9 8 7 7 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 25 27 32 41 45 43 55 52 51 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 12 CX,CY: -9/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 745 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 28.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 11. 17. 22. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. 0. 0. 1. -0. -3. -6. -7. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -11. -15. -18. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 13.8 39.1 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL192023 SEAN 10/13/23 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 3.5 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 28.0 45.1 to 6.7 0.45 1.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 34.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.21 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.46 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.47 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.0 2.9 to -3.0 0.14 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 100.4 27.0 to 144.1 0.63 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : -10.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.09 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 207.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.71 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 36.8 109.3 to 0.0 0.66 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.6% 12.2% 8.3% 5.8% 5.8% 8.5% 8.6% 12.3% Logistic: 0.5% 0.7% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.4% 0.3% 0.5% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 1.1% 4.3% 2.9% 2.0% 1.9% 3.0% 3.0% 4.3% DTOPS: 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL192023 SEAN 10/13/23 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL192023 SEAN 10/13/2023 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 40 39 39 38 36 35 35 37 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 40 39 38 38 37 35 34 34 36 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 40 37 36 36 35 33 32 32 34 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 29 27 26 26 28 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT