* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942023 10/13/23 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 25 25 27 31 36 44 52 57 61 65 68 73 76 79 86 V (KT) LAND 25 25 25 25 27 31 36 44 52 57 61 65 68 73 76 79 86 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 25 25 26 28 31 35 41 47 51 54 55 57 61 64 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 6 3 2 3 9 11 9 6 6 12 12 12 7 9 12 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 7 14 16 15 7 1 1 2 5 9 10 6 3 6 7 7 SHEAR DIR 265 250 244 304 64 91 98 80 96 218 265 271 307 344 4 333 315 SST (C) 28.9 29.0 29.1 29.2 29.3 29.4 29.5 29.3 29.5 29.8 29.9 29.9 29.8 29.9 30.2 30.2 29.4 POT. INT. (KT) 150 151 153 154 156 158 160 156 159 164 166 166 163 166 171 172 158 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.6 -53.5 -53.4 -53.9 -54.3 -54.5 -54.8 -54.6 -54.3 -53.9 -53.7 -53.4 -53.5 -53.7 -54.0 -53.5 200 MB VXT (C) -0.3 -0.3 -0.2 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 6 6 5 6 6 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 7 700-500 MB RH 69 73 72 74 76 79 78 77 72 67 70 73 78 75 74 72 67 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 9 8 8 8 7 7 6 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 17 17 18 12 11 13 20 29 28 24 22 9 22 22 34 20 1 200 MB DIV 25 25 31 52 80 64 108 92 58 -21 16 46 71 84 80 17 15 700-850 TADV 0 0 -1 -2 -1 -1 -1 -2 -2 -2 -2 0 1 4 6 8 15 LAND (KM) 981 1079 1173 1271 1365 1438 1328 1244 1202 1163 1122 1064 1044 1090 1170 1202 1230 LAT (DEG N) 8.3 7.9 7.6 7.2 6.9 6.3 6.0 6.0 6.3 6.6 6.7 6.5 6.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 24.7 25.5 26.3 27.1 27.9 29.5 31.2 32.9 34.2 35.5 36.7 37.9 39.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 9 9 8 9 9 8 7 6 6 5 5 6 8 11 10 HEAT CONTENT 32 34 38 43 48 59 55 47 50 58 63 70 71 59 43 37 27 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):240/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ -4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 613 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 26.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 9.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 7. 18. 29. 41. 51. 61. 69. 75. 79. 79. 80. 80. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. -0. -3. -7. -7. -7. -9. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -6. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. -11. -11. -10. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -11. -13. -14. -14. -15. -16. -16. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -0. -0. 0. 2. 6. 11. 19. 27. 32. 36. 40. 43. 48. 51. 54. 61. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 8.3 24.7 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942023 INVEST 10/13/23 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.4 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 25.2 45.1 to 6.7 0.52 1.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 39.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.24 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.52 1.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.5 2.9 to -3.0 0.23 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 127.9 27.0 to 144.1 0.86 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 42.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.34 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 49.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.88 1.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.6% 14.0% 9.2% 5.9% 0.0% 0.0% 10.6% 0.0% Logistic: 0.8% 4.2% 1.3% 0.5% 0.2% 2.2% 4.8% 22.9% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.6% Consensus: 0.9% 6.3% 3.5% 2.1% 0.1% 0.8% 5.2% 7.8% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942023 INVEST 10/13/2023 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 25 25 25 27 31 36 44 52 57 61 65 68 73 76 79 86 18HR AGO 25 24 24 24 26 30 35 43 51 56 60 64 67 72 75 78 85 12HR AGO 25 22 21 21 23 27 32 40 48 53 57 61 64 69 72 75 82 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 21 26 34 42 47 51 55 58 63 66 69 76 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT