* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SEAN AL192023 10/13/23 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 33 32 32 31 32 35 40 43 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 35 33 32 32 31 32 35 40 43 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 35 33 32 31 30 30 30 32 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 15 12 10 14 19 15 8 4 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 3 5 5 3 0 2 0 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 283 314 352 28 49 85 73 79 331 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.8 28.9 28.7 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.6 28.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 148 149 146 142 142 141 141 144 145 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -53.9 -53.9 -54.0 -53.9 -53.7 -53.7 -53.5 -53.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 -0.3 -0.6 -0.4 -0.4 -0.1 0.0 -0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 9 9 9 10 10 10 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 56 55 57 57 55 49 48 49 45 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 12 11 11 10 8 7 6 5 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -23 -35 -40 -52 -58 -64 -65 -76 -85 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -21 6 -25 -28 -16 -24 -14 -32 -30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 0 0 3 2 -1 0 0 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1585 1581 1582 1599 1613 1612 1553 1472 1376 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.3 14.9 15.4 16.1 16.8 17.7 18.5 19.3 19.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 41.1 41.8 42.4 43.0 43.7 45.0 46.0 47.2 48.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 8 9 9 7 7 6 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 33 42 47 41 38 46 49 42 42 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 723 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 21.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 11. 18. 23. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -10. -13. -16. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. 0. 5. 8. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 14.3 41.1 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL192023 SEAN 10/13/23 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 2.4 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 26.3 45.1 to 6.7 0.49 1.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 40.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.25 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.42 0.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.33 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.4 2.9 to -3.0 0.09 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 104.3 27.0 to 144.1 0.66 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : -16.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.06 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 200.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.72 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 26.7 109.3 to 0.0 0.76 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.5% 9.6% 6.4% 6.3% 3.5% 7.8% 8.4% 0.0% Logistic: 0.5% 0.7% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.4% 0.5% 1.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.7% 3.4% 2.3% 2.2% 1.2% 2.7% 3.0% 0.3% DTOPS: 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL192023 SEAN 10/13/23 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL192023 SEAN 10/13/2023 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 33 32 32 31 32 35 40 43 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 35 34 33 33 32 33 36 41 44 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 35 32 31 31 30 31 34 39 42 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 24 25 28 33 36 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT