* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942023 10/13/23 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 24 25 26 30 37 46 54 59 65 74 79 84 86 90 94 V (KT) LAND 25 24 24 25 26 30 37 46 54 59 65 74 79 84 86 90 94 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 25 25 26 27 31 36 42 49 54 60 67 73 77 77 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 4 3 7 9 9 11 5 1 8 9 5 7 7 4 9 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 12 16 16 12 9 2 1 1 11 8 3 1 4 9 17 11 1 SHEAR DIR 251 189 135 122 122 112 70 70 242 255 277 336 31 42 69 354 328 SST (C) 29.0 29.2 29.3 29.4 29.5 29.7 29.9 29.9 29.9 29.9 29.6 29.5 29.8 30.3 30.4 29.9 29.3 POT. INT. (KT) 152 155 156 158 160 164 167 166 167 166 160 158 164 170 170 167 156 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.2 -53.5 -53.9 -54.0 -54.2 -54.4 -54.2 -54.0 -53.6 -53.6 -53.4 -53.6 -53.5 -53.8 -53.4 -53.2 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 9 8 700-500 MB RH 66 70 73 77 76 77 75 72 64 67 69 73 71 63 58 59 61 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 10 10 10 9 8 7 7 7 6 7 7 6 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 15 8 5 2 7 13 18 35 34 38 22 41 37 46 28 10 -3 200 MB DIV 14 32 66 69 78 115 88 62 0 -8 19 64 78 88 85 29 40 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -1 -1 -1 -2 -2 -3 -2 -2 -1 -1 0 0 3 9 9 LAND (KM) 1215 1322 1412 1510 1514 1368 1251 1188 1130 1085 1036 990 960 986 966 1019 1102 LAT (DEG N) 8.6 8.5 8.3 7.9 7.6 7.0 6.8 6.9 6.9 6.8 6.5 6.4 6.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 27.2 28.2 29.0 29.8 30.7 32.4 34.2 35.6 37.1 38.5 39.8 41.0 42.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 8 9 9 9 8 7 7 7 6 5 6 7 8 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 35 38 41 47 51 45 48 56 60 63 60 51 47 49 55 54 40 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 687 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 34.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 8.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 7. 17. 29. 40. 50. 60. 68. 74. 79. 78. 79. 78. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 4. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -5. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 2. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -9. -9. -7. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -7. -9. -11. -12. -12. -14. -15. -15. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -0. 1. 5. 12. 21. 29. 35. 40. 49. 54. 59. 61. 65. 69. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 8.6 27.2 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942023 INVEST 10/13/23 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.2 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 28.2 45.1 to 6.7 0.44 1.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 42.4 0.0 to 161.7 0.26 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.38 0.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.9 to -3.0 0.39 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 131.1 27.0 to 144.1 0.89 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 51.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.38 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 55.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.87 1.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.5% 13.3% 8.6% 5.2% 0.0% 0.0% 11.1% 0.0% Logistic: 1.4% 6.5% 2.3% 0.9% 0.5% 3.1% 6.7% 27.6% Bayesian: 0.2% 1.2% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 4.1% Consensus: 1.0% 7.0% 3.7% 2.1% 0.2% 1.1% 6.0% 10.6% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942023 INVEST 10/13/2023 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 24 24 25 26 30 37 46 54 59 65 74 79 84 86 90 94 18HR AGO 25 24 24 25 26 30 37 46 54 59 65 74 79 84 86 90 94 12HR AGO 25 22 21 22 23 27 34 43 51 56 62 71 76 81 83 87 91 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 16 20 27 36 44 49 55 64 69 74 76 80 84 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT