* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942023 10/13/23 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 24 25 27 30 37 45 53 62 71 78 84 86 88 90 93 V (KT) LAND 25 24 24 25 27 30 37 45 53 62 71 78 84 86 88 90 93 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 25 25 25 26 30 36 44 52 59 64 67 70 73 74 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 6 8 8 12 7 8 4 4 6 7 12 8 5 3 13 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 15 14 10 8 3 4 0 4 10 5 3 -1 6 12 18 0 -1 SHEAR DIR 226 172 155 139 132 123 80 117 289 321 314 10 29 30 326 315 318 SST (C) 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.3 29.4 29.8 29.8 29.9 29.9 29.6 29.5 29.7 30.1 30.1 29.5 28.8 28.6 POT. INT. (KT) 156 155 155 156 158 166 165 166 166 160 157 161 170 171 160 149 146 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.3 -53.7 -53.8 -53.5 -54.3 -53.9 -53.9 -53.5 -53.5 -53.3 -53.4 -53.2 -53.8 -53.2 -53.3 -52.8 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 6 6 7 7 7 8 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 700-500 MB RH 65 69 72 72 73 75 71 70 64 67 69 73 73 70 71 67 67 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 10 10 10 10 9 8 7 8 9 10 10 11 9 8 8 9 850 MB ENV VOR 16 13 6 3 2 3 10 30 38 48 50 52 46 36 14 -9 -19 200 MB DIV 25 43 56 76 95 77 69 5 5 14 65 78 89 84 56 38 82 700-850 TADV -1 -1 -1 -2 -2 -2 -2 -3 -1 0 0 0 0 -1 1 1 5 LAND (KM) 1352 1468 1569 1556 1482 1312 1218 1161 1101 1045 990 983 1029 1091 1151 1237 1360 LAT (DEG N) 9.1 9.1 8.9 8.5 8.2 7.5 7.4 7.3 7.0 6.6 6.3 6.5 7.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 28.7 29.8 30.7 31.6 32.4 34.3 36.1 37.5 38.9 40.0 40.8 41.4 42.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 10 9 9 9 10 8 7 7 5 3 4 6 8 10 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 35 36 37 37 37 46 57 58 60 58 53 49 45 42 32 26 36 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 785 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 38.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 7.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 7. 17. 28. 39. 50. 59. 67. 74. 77. 77. 78. 76. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 4. 3. 1. -2. -2. -0. -2. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 2. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. -8. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -0. -2. -4. -6. -7. -6. -6. -7. -7. -10. -12. -13. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. 0. 2. 5. 12. 20. 28. 37. 47. 53. 59. 61. 63. 65. 68. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 9.1 28.7 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942023 INVEST 10/13/23 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.3 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 26.9 45.1 to 6.7 0.47 1.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 36.4 0.0 to 161.7 0.23 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.43 0.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.9 to -3.0 0.34 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 131.0 27.0 to 144.1 0.89 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 59.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.41 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 71.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.85 1.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.5% 13.7% 8.8% 5.3% 0.0% 0.0% 11.4% 0.0% Logistic: 1.7% 7.4% 3.6% 2.1% 0.8% 4.2% 6.3% 22.2% Bayesian: 0.3% 1.2% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% 0.4% 4.7% Consensus: 1.2% 7.4% 4.3% 2.5% 0.3% 1.5% 6.1% 9.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942023 INVEST 10/13/2023 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 24 24 25 27 30 37 45 53 62 71 78 84 86 88 90 93 18HR AGO 25 24 24 25 27 30 37 45 53 62 71 78 84 86 88 90 93 12HR AGO 25 22 21 22 24 27 34 42 50 59 68 75 81 83 85 87 90 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 20 27 35 43 52 61 68 74 76 78 80 83 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT