* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST CP922023 10/13/23 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 24 25 28 33 41 47 54 61 66 71 76 77 72 69 66 V (KT) LAND 20 22 24 25 28 33 41 47 54 61 66 71 76 77 72 69 66 V (KT) LGEM 20 21 21 23 24 26 29 31 33 38 45 54 62 65 62 58 56 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 4 2 3 5 8 11 9 5 3 6 6 10 11 17 16 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -1 -1 -4 -2 -6 -6 -4 -3 -2 0 0 7 5 0 -1 SHEAR DIR 348 39 137 175 193 210 237 272 322 348 325 15 350 341 331 338 320 SST (C) 29.3 29.1 28.9 28.8 28.7 28.6 28.5 28.7 28.8 28.8 29.0 29.1 29.1 28.8 28.6 28.8 29.0 POT. INT. (KT) 156 154 152 151 150 149 149 151 151 151 153 154 155 154 152 155 157 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.2 -52.4 -52.8 -53.1 -52.8 -52.7 -52.7 -53.1 -52.9 -53.2 -52.9 -53.1 -52.5 -53.1 -52.8 -53.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 700-500 MB RH 66 64 63 64 60 56 55 57 64 66 64 60 57 59 58 60 63 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 6 6 7 6 6 6 6 7 8 10 10 11 12 10 10 10 850 MB ENV VOR 61 53 52 53 54 49 47 55 60 66 53 45 35 32 28 32 33 200 MB DIV 97 93 76 65 37 -20 -31 10 15 40 60 55 46 33 -5 -11 -18 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1 -1 0 0 0 0 0 -3 -3 -7 -9 LAND (KM) 1378 1396 1410 1427 1453 1499 1583 1713 1842 1942 2038 2104 2183 2301 2485 2724 2974 LAT (DEG N) 8.6 8.8 9.0 9.2 9.4 9.6 9.5 9.1 8.8 8.6 8.4 8.6 9.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 162.8 163.4 163.9 164.4 165.0 166.2 167.7 169.3 170.9 172.1 173.2 174.3 175.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 5 6 6 6 8 8 7 6 5 6 9 12 15 15 15 HEAT CONTENT 39 37 37 37 40 41 43 53 55 53 54 59 67 49 53 31 30 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 550 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 78.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 9.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. 0. 2. 10. 21. 31. 40. 46. 52. 56. 59. 61. 61. 60. 60. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -0. -2. -4. -6. -7. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. 3. 4. 5. 2. 2. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -3. -6. -8. -11. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 5. 8. 13. 21. 27. 34. 41. 46. 51. 56. 57. 52. 49. 46. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 8.6 162.8 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX CP922023 INVEST 10/13/23 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 132.4 36.9 to 148.5 0.86 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 13.1 30.9 to 7.7 0.77 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 83.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.82 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 73.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.55 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.64 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 38.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.35 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.9 49.8 to 0.0 0.98 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.46 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 12.4% 53.0% 38.7% 26.2% 8.4% 25.9% 36.5% 63.9% Bayesian: 0.4% 5.5% 2.1% 0.6% 0.0% 1.1% 1.3% 0.5% Consensus: 4.3% 19.5% 13.6% 8.9% 2.8% 9.0% 12.6% 21.5% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP922023 INVEST 10/13/23 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##