* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942023 10/14/23 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 28 30 34 41 54 65 76 83 91 96 98 95 95 96 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 28 30 34 41 54 65 76 83 91 96 98 95 95 96 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 26 26 27 30 36 46 58 69 78 85 87 86 85 84 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 10 9 8 9 9 8 5 6 4 7 9 11 16 16 20 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 12 9 6 5 4 -2 -2 0 2 0 0 0 0 2 0 -2 2 SHEAR DIR 178 158 141 130 123 77 60 28 19 352 320 311 268 277 261 264 238 SST (C) 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.3 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.8 29.8 29.7 29.4 29.0 28.8 28.4 28.3 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 154 154 155 155 157 164 163 162 163 161 161 158 153 150 144 142 147 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.6 -53.7 -53.3 -53.8 -54.1 -53.8 -53.7 -53.3 -53.2 -53.3 -53.4 -53.3 -53.2 -52.9 -52.6 -52.4 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 6 6 5 6 6 7 7 7 700-500 MB RH 69 72 72 73 75 76 75 71 71 73 76 74 71 65 65 60 59 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 10 11 11 10 9 8 10 12 15 16 18 19 20 19 20 21 850 MB ENV VOR 16 13 11 8 12 20 31 48 45 37 42 41 44 29 12 3 0 200 MB DIV 58 68 80 100 123 107 80 28 33 84 107 96 92 31 82 51 58 700-850 TADV -1 -1 -2 -4 -4 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 0 2 3 -2 2 4 4 LAND (KM) 1363 1447 1548 1587 1507 1376 1316 1264 1222 1206 1237 1376 1524 1577 1660 1677 1619 LAT (DEG N) 9.1 9.1 8.9 8.7 8.4 8.2 8.3 8.2 8.0 7.9 8.2 9.5 11.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 28.8 29.6 30.5 31.4 32.3 34.4 36.0 37.3 38.2 38.5 38.6 39.0 39.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 9 9 10 9 7 5 3 1 4 9 13 15 15 13 11 HEAT CONTENT 35 36 37 37 35 43 54 50 47 47 43 31 29 33 43 52 53 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 627 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 79.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 7.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 7. 17. 28. 38. 48. 57. 65. 70. 73. 71. 71. 69. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. -1. -3. -4. -7. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -7. -9. -10. -11. -11. -10. -10. -8. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -1. -3. -4. -3. -2. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 3. 2. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. -0. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 5. 9. 16. 29. 40. 51. 58. 66. 71. 73. 70. 70. 71. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 9.1 28.8 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942023 INVEST 10/14/23 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.5 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 25.1 45.1 to 6.7 0.52 1.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 36.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.22 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.44 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.9 to -3.0 0.40 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 130.0 27.0 to 144.1 0.88 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 85.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.53 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 62.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.86 1.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.6% 15.2% 9.7% 5.7% 0.0% 0.0% 13.1% 0.0% Logistic: 4.4% 16.4% 6.9% 4.4% 2.4% 11.2% 26.3% 51.1% Bayesian: 1.2% 10.5% 3.3% 0.5% 0.3% 3.6% 18.8% 19.7% Consensus: 2.4% 14.0% 6.6% 3.5% 0.9% 4.9% 19.4% 23.6% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942023 INVEST 10/14/2023 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 27 28 30 34 41 54 65 76 83 91 96 98 95 95 96 18HR AGO 25 24 25 26 28 32 39 52 63 74 81 89 94 96 93 93 94 12HR AGO 25 22 21 22 24 28 35 48 59 70 77 85 90 92 89 89 90 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 21 28 41 52 63 70 78 83 85 82 82 83 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT