* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST CP922023 10/14/23 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 22 24 26 31 39 46 52 56 61 67 69 70 69 70 67 V (KT) LAND 20 21 22 24 26 31 39 46 52 56 61 67 69 70 69 70 67 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 21 22 22 24 25 27 30 36 42 48 52 54 54 55 55 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 2 4 3 3 5 7 5 4 4 7 8 8 9 10 12 12 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -3 -2 -2 -2 -3 -6 -6 -3 -5 0 2 6 11 5 -1 0 SHEAR DIR 314 254 252 188 209 219 245 246 326 273 333 341 331 314 325 308 297 SST (C) 29.2 29.0 28.8 28.7 28.6 28.4 28.4 28.5 28.6 28.7 28.8 28.7 28.6 28.5 28.7 29.1 29.5 POT. INT. (KT) 155 153 151 150 149 147 147 148 148 150 151 151 152 152 154 159 163 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.3 -52.7 -52.9 -52.8 -52.7 -52.6 -52.9 -53.0 -53.1 -52.9 -53.1 -52.8 -52.9 -52.8 -53.1 -52.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 7 6 7 8 8 700-500 MB RH 63 65 63 62 59 56 56 61 64 65 62 62 61 62 62 62 61 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 8 8 7 7 7 8 8 9 11 12 11 11 12 13 13 850 MB ENV VOR 49 45 50 51 48 45 55 59 65 62 54 47 34 44 44 40 32 200 MB DIV 88 85 66 50 35 -15 2 23 18 65 79 81 46 27 11 32 40 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 1 0 -1 -1 0 0 -1 -1 -1 -1 -2 -4 -6 0 LAND (KM) 1414 1444 1458 1468 1472 1507 1592 1689 1787 1881 1967 2048 2159 2336 2582 2866 2692 LAT (DEG N) 8.6 8.7 9.0 9.3 9.6 9.8 9.7 9.5 9.2 8.9 8.9 9.2 9.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 163.4 164.0 164.6 165.1 165.6 166.8 168.2 169.5 170.6 171.6 172.8 174.2 176.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 6 6 8 13 15 18 18 18 HEAT CONTENT 39 39 39 40 41 40 44 49 51 52 50 52 52 39 45 43 82 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 537 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 62.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 11.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. 0. 2. 10. 21. 31. 39. 45. 50. 54. 58. 60. 60. 59. 60. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 8. 9. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -8. -11. -11. -12. -12. -10. -8. -7. -4. -2. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 5. 4. 5. 5. 5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -3. -5. -8. -11. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 6. 11. 19. 26. 32. 36. 41. 47. 49. 50. 49. 50. 47. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 8.6 163.4 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX CP922023 INVEST 10/14/23 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 131.5 36.9 to 148.5 0.85 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 12.0 30.9 to 7.7 0.82 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 81.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.82 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 64.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.51 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.70 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 39.6 2.7 to 103.4 0.37 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.4 49.8 to 0.0 0.97 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.53 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 9.0% 46.3% 30.8% 21.1% 6.7% 28.7% 45.0% 52.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.7% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.4% Consensus: 3.0% 15.7% 10.4% 7.0% 2.3% 9.6% 15.0% 17.5% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP922023 INVEST 10/14/23 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##