* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942023 10/14/23 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 36 38 40 45 54 65 73 79 83 87 91 90 94 95 91 V (KT) LAND 30 33 36 38 40 45 54 65 73 79 83 87 91 90 94 95 91 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 34 35 35 37 43 54 67 79 89 92 91 89 90 92 88 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 14 15 14 8 14 10 8 9 10 16 16 17 14 18 18 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 3 5 6 5 -5 -5 -1 0 0 -4 0 0 0 0 5 13 SHEAR DIR 156 153 145 136 93 56 53 35 16 315 290 253 264 265 235 229 284 SST (C) 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.5 29.7 29.8 29.7 29.8 29.8 29.6 29.4 28.8 28.7 28.4 28.7 28.5 28.8 POT. INT. (KT) 155 155 155 160 164 165 161 161 162 160 159 151 150 146 149 143 146 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.5 -53.1 -53.7 -54.0 -53.5 -54.0 -53.3 -53.3 -53.0 -53.5 -52.9 -53.1 -52.1 -52.0 -51.8 -52.4 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.8 1.8 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 7 8 8 7 700-500 MB RH 72 71 72 75 74 72 72 65 71 75 76 70 65 61 60 60 63 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 12 12 11 11 10 12 14 16 19 21 23 27 25 28 30 31 850 MB ENV VOR 17 16 14 15 15 23 43 51 37 39 47 52 43 29 22 27 35 200 MB DIV 70 83 127 142 135 133 83 61 54 118 135 130 83 34 17 65 33 700-850 TADV 0 -2 -4 -5 -5 -2 -3 -1 0 0 1 0 -6 -6 0 5 12 LAND (KM) 1524 1624 1560 1473 1381 1291 1256 1230 1232 1313 1470 1624 1637 1628 1405 1226 1147 LAT (DEG N) 9.3 9.3 9.0 8.6 8.2 8.1 8.1 8.0 8.0 8.7 10.2 12.6 15.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 30.4 31.4 32.4 33.3 34.3 36.1 37.2 37.8 37.7 37.5 37.8 39.2 41.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 10 10 10 7 4 1 2 5 10 16 20 21 15 9 5 HEAT CONTENT 35 34 32 34 43 56 52 50 50 44 33 27 41 50 45 54 37 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 635 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 17.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 7. 16. 27. 37. 46. 55. 61. 66. 67. 64. 64. 61. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. -0. -2. -4. -7. -11. -14. -16. -17. -16. -18. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. -9. -9. -7. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 1. 2. 5. 9. 11. 14. 10. 15. 16. 15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. -0. -3. -5. -6. -7. -9. -11. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 8. 10. 15. 24. 35. 43. 49. 53. 57. 61. 60. 64. 65. 61. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 9.3 30.4 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942023 INVEST 10/14/23 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 4.3 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 26.5 45.1 to 6.7 0.48 1.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 35.6 0.0 to 161.7 0.22 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.71 1.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.20 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.7 2.9 to -3.0 0.20 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 128.0 27.0 to 144.1 0.86 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 111.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.65 1.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 75.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.85 1.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 1.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 29% is 5.5 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.7% 20.6% 12.0% 8.7% 6.3% 11.7% 14.5% 29.1% Logistic: 8.3% 18.3% 8.3% 10.1% 4.6% 16.4% 27.5% 46.9% Bayesian: 8.2% 11.7% 5.3% 0.8% 0.4% 12.0% 9.1% 30.6% Consensus: 6.7% 16.9% 8.5% 6.6% 3.8% 13.3% 17.0% 35.5% DTOPS: 1.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942023 INVEST 10/14/2023 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 33 36 38 40 45 54 65 73 79 83 87 91 90 94 95 91 18HR AGO 30 29 32 34 36 41 50 61 69 75 79 83 87 86 90 91 87 12HR AGO 30 27 26 28 30 35 44 55 63 69 73 77 81 80 84 85 81 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 22 27 36 47 55 61 65 69 73 72 76 77 73 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT