* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST CP922023 10/14/23 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 22 23 24 28 35 44 51 56 61 64 68 68 64 62 58 V (KT) LAND 20 21 22 23 24 28 35 44 51 56 61 64 68 68 64 62 58 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 21 21 22 23 24 26 30 35 43 50 55 54 51 49 47 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 2 2 5 9 8 8 5 4 6 6 14 8 14 16 22 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 0 -1 -3 -2 -3 -6 -6 -5 -3 -1 1 7 6 0 -5 -3 SHEAR DIR 242 308 235 213 203 229 257 321 14 330 344 349 342 332 330 311 294 SST (C) 29.0 28.9 28.8 28.6 28.6 28.5 28.6 28.7 28.8 28.9 29.1 29.2 28.9 28.6 28.8 29.0 29.4 POT. INT. (KT) 154 152 151 148 149 148 149 150 151 152 154 157 155 152 154 157 161 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.8 -53.1 -52.9 -52.8 -52.7 -52.7 -53.1 -52.9 -53.3 -53.0 -53.2 -52.9 -53.2 -53.0 -53.1 -52.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 6 7 6 6 6 7 6 8 8 9 700-500 MB RH 64 64 63 59 58 57 58 63 66 69 68 67 67 68 66 66 63 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 5 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 8 7 8 7 6 6 5 850 MB ENV VOR 47 48 49 48 49 55 63 60 63 56 47 39 40 39 31 27 13 200 MB DIV 64 71 54 46 18 -24 23 0 19 33 47 10 30 16 11 -5 35 700-850 TADV 0 1 1 1 0 -1 -1 -1 -1 0 -2 -2 -1 -1 -4 -1 3 LAND (KM) 1484 1516 1536 1523 1537 1600 1701 1809 1903 1999 2104 2215 2348 2534 2730 2957 2713 LAT (DEG N) 8.7 8.9 9.1 9.4 9.5 9.5 9.3 9.1 8.8 8.6 8.5 8.8 9.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 164.6 165.3 165.9 166.3 166.8 168.0 169.4 170.8 171.8 172.9 174.2 175.9 178.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 6 5 5 6 7 6 6 6 7 10 12 14 14 15 15 HEAT CONTENT 41 42 43 42 41 44 51 52 52 53 58 72 56 54 32 29 82 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 544 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 59.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 8.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. 0. 2. 10. 21. 31. 39. 46. 51. 56. 59. 61. 61. 60. 60. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -2. -3. -6. -9. -10. -10. -9. -9. -7. -6. -5. -3. -2. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -6. -8. -12. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 8. 15. 24. 31. 36. 41. 44. 48. 48. 44. 42. 38. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 8.7 164.6 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX CP922023 INVEST 10/14/23 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 130.7 36.9 to 148.5 0.84 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 12.9 30.9 to 7.7 0.78 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 84.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.82 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 50.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.43 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.83 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 41.8 2.7 to 103.4 0.39 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.9 49.8 to 0.0 0.98 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.42 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 9.1% 36.7% 23.4% 15.9% 5.2% 21.0% 43.1% 65.3% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.6% Consensus: 3.0% 12.4% 7.8% 5.3% 1.7% 7.0% 14.4% 22.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP922023 INVEST 10/14/23 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##