* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942023 10/14/23 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 36 39 43 50 58 66 76 82 89 90 92 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 33 36 39 43 50 58 66 76 82 89 90 92 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 32 33 35 36 40 47 60 73 84 92 96 97 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 17 17 14 11 8 5 10 7 2 6 8 15 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 3 6 0 -3 0 3 7 7 12 4 0 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 151 152 158 128 100 45 52 38 126 271 267 248 224 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.2 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.3 29.3 29.1 28.9 28.9 29.3 29.0 29.6 29.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 155 152 152 152 156 156 153 150 151 157 153 163 163 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -52.9 -53.6 -54.0 -53.9 -53.7 -53.7 -53.3 -53.3 -53.0 -52.9 -52.8 -52.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 6 7 7 7 7 8 8 9 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 71 70 74 75 73 72 63 65 58 57 54 55 54 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 11 11 10 10 10 10 12 14 16 18 20 20 20 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 15 10 14 21 31 32 45 38 50 70 80 84 83 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 100 142 124 122 122 119 51 27 40 75 62 39 44 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -2 -5 -7 -4 -4 -4 -1 0 2 1 5 10 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1646 1622 1595 1572 1554 1539 1550 1475 1346 1201 1039 960 772 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 9.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 31.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 8 8 8 8 9 10 10 12 12 13 13 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 32 29 26 25 28 32 29 26 23 42 35 66 71 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 569 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 20.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 7. 15. 25. 34. 43. 50. 56. 60. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 1. 2. 2. 0. -2. -5. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. 1. 3. 5. 8. 6. 6. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -2. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 1. -0. -1. -2. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 14. 20. 28. 36. 46. 52. 59. 60. 62. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 9.5 31.7 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942023 INVEST 10/14/23 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 5.2 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 23.2 45.1 to 6.7 0.57 2.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 28.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.17 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.82 2.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.20 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.4 2.9 to -3.0 0.26 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 123.3 27.0 to 144.1 0.82 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 122.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.70 1.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 87.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.84 1.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 32% is 2.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 23% is 4.3 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.3% 32.1% 15.3% 9.4% 7.2% 14.6% 16.0% 22.8% Logistic: 6.7% 29.3% 13.2% 13.8% 7.5% 20.0% 19.9% 19.2% Bayesian: 4.0% 24.4% 8.1% 0.8% 0.4% 8.5% 7.2% 14.5% Consensus: 5.0% 28.6% 12.2% 8.0% 5.1% 14.3% 14.4% 18.9% DTOPS: 1.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942023 INVEST 10/14/2023 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 33 36 39 43 50 58 66 76 82 89 90 92 DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 30 29 32 35 39 46 54 62 72 78 85 86 88 DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 30 27 26 29 33 40 48 56 66 72 79 80 82 DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 24 31 39 47 57 63 70 71 73 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT