* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST CP922023 10/14/23 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 20 21 21 24 31 41 50 56 59 62 64 64 62 61 57 V (KT) LAND 20 20 20 21 21 24 31 41 50 56 59 62 64 64 62 61 57 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 20 21 21 22 23 25 28 33 39 44 48 49 49 49 49 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 2 2 4 6 9 7 9 5 3 8 8 6 11 12 10 14 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -4 -5 -3 -4 -5 -2 3 2 3 -3 -5 -2 SHEAR DIR 299 212 189 173 200 260 267 343 350 14 347 327 301 340 333 319 283 SST (C) 29.0 28.8 28.7 28.6 28.5 28.6 28.7 28.8 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.0 28.9 28.8 28.8 29.2 29.4 POT. INT. (KT) 153 151 149 148 147 149 150 151 152 153 154 155 154 154 154 159 160 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -53.0 -52.8 -52.8 -52.7 -52.5 -52.8 -53.0 -53.1 -53.0 -53.2 -53.0 -53.1 -52.9 -53.1 -53.1 -53.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 7 6 6 7 8 8 700-500 MB RH 65 62 61 59 58 55 62 67 71 69 66 63 66 66 65 63 64 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 7 7 6 6 6 7 8 8 9 10 9 10 10 9 8 7 850 MB ENV VOR 41 46 47 52 49 52 57 60 60 56 41 40 43 44 35 17 10 200 MB DIV 66 56 46 10 -13 -14 30 34 67 76 44 43 20 25 19 16 3 700-850 TADV 1 1 1 0 0 -1 -1 0 -1 -1 -2 0 -2 -3 -5 -2 -1 LAND (KM) 1512 1538 1545 1543 1567 1645 1741 1836 1928 1999 2080 2178 2309 2492 2684 2919 2735 LAT (DEG N) 8.7 8.9 9.1 9.3 9.3 9.2 9.0 8.8 8.6 8.6 8.8 9.4 10.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 165.0 165.6 166.1 166.5 167.0 168.3 169.6 170.8 171.9 172.9 174.2 176.0 178.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 5 5 5 6 6 6 5 5 8 10 12 13 14 15 14 HEAT CONTENT 42 42 42 40 41 46 53 56 58 58 59 61 41 51 35 40 76 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 535 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 15.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. 0. 2. 10. 21. 31. 39. 46. 51. 56. 59. 61. 61. 60. 60. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 7. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -2. -5. -7. -8. -7. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. -3. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. 2. 2. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -5. -7. -8. -9. -11. -13. -13. -13. -12. -11. -12. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -6. -8. -12. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 11. 21. 30. 36. 39. 42. 44. 44. 42. 41. 37. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 8.7 165.0 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX CP922023 INVEST 10/14/23 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 129.8 36.9 to 148.5 0.83 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 14.1 30.9 to 7.7 0.73 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 87.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.81 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 33.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.34 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.64 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 41.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.38 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.6 49.8 to 0.0 0.99 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.42 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.5% 15.9% 8.9% 4.5% 1.0% 8.6% 3.7% 14.9% Bayesian: 0.0% 1.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.2% 5.6% 3.0% 1.5% 0.4% 2.9% 1.2% 5.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP922023 INVEST 10/14/23 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##