* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942023 10/14/23 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 35 39 42 49 57 67 74 82 86 91 90 91 90 95 95 V (KT) LAND 30 32 35 39 42 49 57 67 74 82 86 91 90 91 90 95 95 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 31 32 33 37 45 55 66 77 86 89 88 84 80 78 76 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 14 13 11 11 10 6 3 5 7 16 25 25 27 19 5 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 4 1 -3 -3 0 7 6 7 6 0 -2 0 1 2 1 8 SHEAR DIR 152 142 127 106 87 81 87 111 242 255 243 232 234 232 257 311 69 SST (C) 29.2 29.1 29.1 29.3 29.5 29.1 29.1 29.0 29.3 29.4 29.6 29.8 29.5 29.4 29.5 29.6 29.5 POT. INT. (KT) 154 153 153 157 160 153 154 152 157 160 164 168 162 159 160 163 161 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -53.5 -54.0 -53.9 -53.4 -53.9 -53.2 -53.2 -53.0 -53.2 -52.9 -52.9 -52.7 -52.6 -52.6 -52.4 -52.8 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 -0.2 -0.1 -0.2 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.7 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 6 7 7 7 7 8 8 9 9 10 10 10 10 11 700-500 MB RH 71 74 77 75 73 70 62 62 57 57 54 53 53 52 51 46 45 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 9 10 10 10 13 15 16 18 19 21 20 21 21 22 20 850 MB ENV VOR 20 25 31 40 37 44 52 55 69 82 73 83 82 71 69 44 21 200 MB DIV 140 133 134 132 111 68 8 20 60 30 35 22 40 -4 -8 -58 -44 700-850 TADV -3 -5 -4 -3 -3 -3 -1 2 5 5 11 13 10 4 4 2 2 LAND (KM) 1631 1598 1565 1525 1495 1483 1487 1356 1213 1065 910 782 535 393 262 122 232 LAT (DEG N) 9.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 31.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 9 10 10 10 10 10 11 14 15 15 13 12 10 11 12 HEAT CONTENT 31 28 26 29 35 30 28 23 32 44 58 84 81 65 70 73 91 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 551 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 90.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 18.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 7. 16. 25. 34. 43. 51. 57. 61. 63. 61. 61. 59. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. -2. -6. -11. -15. -16. -16. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -0. -1. -1. 1. 4. 4. 7. 8. 9. 7. 8. 6. 7. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 9. 12. 19. 27. 37. 44. 52. 56. 61. 60. 61. 60. 65. 65. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 9.4 31.8 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942023 INVEST 10/14/23 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.9 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 22.2 45.1 to 6.7 0.60 2.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 29.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.18 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.79 2.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.20 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.50 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 125.5 27.0 to 144.1 0.84 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 130.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.73 1.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 81.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.84 1.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 35% is 3.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 22% is 4.1 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.8% 34.5% 15.8% 9.2% 7.3% 12.4% 14.4% 21.5% Logistic: 4.8% 32.3% 12.6% 7.7% 5.5% 11.6% 14.8% 12.8% Bayesian: 0.5% 13.8% 2.1% 0.2% 0.2% 2.3% 13.4% 7.4% Consensus: 3.0% 26.9% 10.1% 5.7% 4.3% 8.8% 14.2% 13.9% DTOPS: 1.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942023 INVEST 10/14/2023 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 32 35 39 42 49 57 67 74 82 86 91 90 91 90 95 95 18HR AGO 30 29 32 36 39 46 54 64 71 79 83 88 87 88 87 92 92 12HR AGO 30 27 26 30 33 40 48 58 65 73 77 82 81 82 81 86 86 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 23 30 38 48 55 63 67 72 71 72 71 76 76 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT