* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST CP922023 10/14/23 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 20 21 21 25 33 43 49 52 54 55 58 57 56 55 52 V (KT) LAND 20 20 20 21 21 25 33 43 49 52 54 55 58 57 56 55 52 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 21 21 22 23 24 27 30 35 39 41 41 40 39 39 42 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 0 3 7 9 10 11 8 7 11 11 10 9 12 13 12 8 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 -1 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -1 0 4 3 -1 -2 -1 -3 SHEAR DIR 142 164 180 216 241 288 349 21 355 6 357 336 335 345 328 311 278 SST (C) 28.9 28.8 28.6 28.6 28.7 28.8 29.0 29.1 29.3 29.6 29.8 29.7 29.4 29.2 29.0 29.1 29.1 POT. INT. (KT) 153 151 148 149 150 151 153 154 156 159 162 162 159 157 155 156 156 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.8 -52.8 -52.7 -52.7 -52.7 -53.1 -52.8 -53.1 -53.0 -53.4 -52.9 -53.3 -53.0 -53.0 -52.8 -53.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 8 7 7 6 7 6 7 6 7 6 7 7 8 7 700-500 MB RH 63 62 59 57 58 60 67 66 68 67 65 66 67 66 66 66 68 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 6 5 5 5 6 6 7 7 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 850 MB ENV VOR 47 50 50 52 56 71 68 73 76 63 50 44 47 44 44 38 30 200 MB DIV 39 29 -4 -6 -6 36 32 21 37 29 18 15 2 -15 -12 7 19 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 -1 -1 -1 -2 -1 -1 -1 -1 -2 -3 -2 -2 LAND (KM) 1584 1607 1612 1638 1681 1784 1893 1997 2110 2216 2315 2431 2536 2654 2796 2798 2690 LAT (DEG N) 8.8 8.9 9.1 9.1 9.0 8.8 8.6 8.2 7.8 7.5 7.6 7.8 8.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 166.3 167.0 167.5 168.0 168.6 170.0 171.4 172.4 173.5 174.6 176.0 177.7 179.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 6 5 5 6 7 7 5 5 6 7 10 11 11 11 11 10 HEAT CONTENT 44 44 44 46 49 56 59 60 63 72 86 92 84 58 46 40 39 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 545 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 15.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 10. 21. 32. 41. 47. 54. 58. 62. 65. 64. 63. 62. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -0. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -0. 3. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -5. -7. -8. -9. -11. -13. -13. -13. -13. -11. -12. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -5. -8. -12. -16. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 5. 13. 23. 29. 32. 34. 35. 38. 37. 36. 35. 32. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 8.8 166.3 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX CP922023 INVEST 10/14/23 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 130.1 36.9 to 148.5 0.84 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 14.1 30.9 to 7.7 0.73 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 89.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.81 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 10.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.23 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.67 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 45.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.42 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 49.8 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.2 to -2.3 0.41 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.8% 14.3% 8.4% 4.3% 1.7% 7.9% 2.9% 17.6% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 1.3% 5.0% 2.8% 1.4% 0.6% 2.6% 1.0% 5.9% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP922023 INVEST 10/14/23 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##