* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942023 10/15/23 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 29 31 38 48 59 67 71 75 76 74 75 76 80 85 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 29 31 38 48 59 67 71 75 76 74 75 76 80 85 V (KT) LGEM 25 24 24 24 25 28 34 41 47 53 54 52 49 47 46 48 53 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 9 9 10 9 4 1 7 18 28 21 34 27 25 11 8 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 2 -2 -3 0 8 9 5 3 -6 -2 -1 -4 1 0 -2 -3 SHEAR DIR 152 132 111 100 100 66 349 259 265 267 247 254 251 245 243 193 218 SST (C) 29.1 29.1 29.2 29.3 29.3 29.1 28.9 28.9 29.4 28.9 29.6 29.6 29.7 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.4 POT. INT. (KT) 152 153 155 157 157 153 151 151 160 152 164 164 165 161 161 161 159 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -54.1 -54.0 -53.5 -53.7 -53.7 -53.4 -53.4 -53.3 -53.4 -53.3 -53.3 -53.4 -53.3 -53.0 -53.0 -52.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 6 6 6 7 7 9 9 10 10 11 11 11 11 12 700-500 MB RH 75 77 76 75 75 68 66 59 54 51 54 48 51 50 48 48 47 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 8 8 8 8 9 11 13 14 15 16 17 15 15 14 14 17 850 MB ENV VOR 23 29 37 35 38 47 43 59 78 73 74 78 63 34 3 -22 -66 200 MB DIV 119 107 109 92 75 50 46 57 29 3 19 15 -27 -9 -50 -8 -8 700-850 TADV -5 -3 -2 -2 -3 -2 -1 4 7 11 12 14 13 8 5 5 4 LAND (KM) 1604 1580 1560 1538 1524 1533 1515 1322 1188 1041 946 660 415 305 137 158 269 LAT (DEG N) 9.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 32.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 9 10 10 9 11 12 13 14 14 14 14 13 11 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 29 26 27 30 33 29 27 23 44 34 72 80 79 64 74 86 77 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 574 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 81.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 8.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 7. 16. 26. 35. 44. 52. 58. 63. 65. 63. 63. 61. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 6. 7. 4. -2. -9. -16. -22. -25. -24. -24. -24. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 3. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 0. 0. -2. -3. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 7. 13. 23. 34. 42. 46. 50. 51. 49. 50. 51. 55. 60. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 9.5 32.5 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942023 INVEST 10/15/23 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 3.4 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 18.9 45.1 to 6.7 0.68 2.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 29.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.18 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.59 1.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.9 to -3.0 0.54 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 129.6 27.0 to 144.1 0.88 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 100.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.60 0.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 60.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.86 1.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.8% 17.6% 11.3% 6.5% 0.0% 0.0% 12.8% 0.0% Logistic: 3.0% 16.7% 5.2% 1.7% 1.2% 5.4% 12.8% 10.1% Bayesian: 1.4% 11.5% 2.0% 0.1% 0.1% 2.2% 4.3% 3.3% Consensus: 2.1% 15.3% 6.2% 2.8% 0.4% 2.5% 10.0% 4.5% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942023 INVEST 10/15/2023 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 27 29 31 38 48 59 67 71 75 76 74 75 76 80 85 18HR AGO 25 24 25 27 29 36 46 57 65 69 73 74 72 73 74 78 83 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 25 32 42 53 61 65 69 70 68 69 70 74 79 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 24 34 45 53 57 61 62 60 61 62 66 71 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT