* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942023 10/15/23 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 29 32 38 45 55 62 66 70 67 65 65 66 73 75 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 29 32 38 45 55 62 66 70 67 65 65 66 73 75 V (KT) LGEM 25 24 24 24 25 28 33 38 43 47 49 47 43 40 39 40 42 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 12 11 8 2 3 4 12 17 21 29 33 34 29 22 6 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 -1 0 3 9 7 6 0 -1 0 -3 -2 3 -1 -2 0 SHEAR DIR 133 128 128 132 156 329 284 255 259 239 230 247 244 234 247 265 261 SST (C) 29.1 29.2 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.1 29.0 29.1 29.5 29.5 29.8 29.6 29.7 29.5 29.7 29.4 29.4 POT. INT. (KT) 152 154 158 158 157 153 152 155 162 162 167 162 165 162 165 158 157 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -54.0 -53.6 -53.8 -53.9 -53.5 -53.6 -53.3 -53.4 -53.0 -53.4 -53.1 -53.3 -53.2 -52.9 -53.0 -52.9 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 7 6 7 7 8 9 10 10 10 11 11 12 12 11 700-500 MB RH 77 77 77 76 75 68 69 63 58 57 52 52 51 50 46 48 48 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 7 7 7 7 8 9 11 12 13 14 12 11 11 11 12 12 850 MB ENV VOR 31 40 37 42 43 38 44 47 59 67 81 75 48 28 -24 -46 -69 200 MB DIV 94 91 82 60 41 36 54 29 32 47 42 28 -16 23 -50 -15 -16 700-850 TADV -3 -1 -1 -3 -3 -3 -1 0 3 9 18 20 14 1 2 2 2 LAND (KM) 1570 1540 1513 1507 1509 1535 1414 1251 1071 914 846 604 436 326 58 113 229 LAT (DEG N) 9.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 33.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 8 10 10 10 12 13 14 14 13 10 12 15 14 9 8 HEAT CONTENT 26 27 30 33 33 29 25 27 47 52 83 83 79 63 73 95 86 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 571 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 80.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 12.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. 0. 1. 7. 16. 26. 36. 45. 53. 58. 63. 66. 64. 64. 62. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 3. -2. -9. -16. -23. -28. -28. -28. -27. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 3. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -6. -6. -5. -4. -4. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. 1. 1. 3. -1. -4. -4. -5. -4. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 7. 13. 20. 30. 37. 41. 45. 42. 40. 40. 41. 48. 50. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 9.6 33.3 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942023 INVEST 10/15/23 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 3.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 18.4 45.1 to 6.7 0.70 2.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 29.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.18 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.77 2.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.9 to -3.0 0.63 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 130.4 27.0 to 144.1 0.88 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 73.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.48 0.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 45.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.88 1.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 2.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.9% 24.2% 12.3% 7.4% 0.0% 0.0% 13.0% 0.0% Logistic: 4.2% 31.1% 12.5% 4.7% 4.6% 14.1% 18.7% 24.8% Bayesian: 0.5% 5.2% 1.1% 0.1% 0.0% 1.2% 1.0% 8.8% Consensus: 2.5% 20.2% 8.6% 4.1% 1.5% 5.1% 10.9% 11.2% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942023 INVEST 10/15/2023 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 27 29 32 38 45 55 62 66 70 67 65 65 66 73 75 18HR AGO 25 24 25 27 30 36 43 53 60 64 68 65 63 63 64 71 73 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 26 32 39 49 56 60 64 61 59 59 60 67 69 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 18 24 31 41 48 52 56 53 51 51 52 59 61 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT