* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942023 10/15/23 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 19 20 21 24 32 44 53 64 70 71 70 71 69 66 68 71 V (KT) LAND 20 19 20 21 24 32 44 53 64 70 71 70 71 69 66 68 71 V (KT) LGEM 20 19 19 19 20 23 28 33 38 43 45 44 43 39 36 34 35 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 6 4 2 5 4 2 13 14 17 25 26 34 31 26 15 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 1 2 2 6 8 4 -2 0 3 3 2 1 -1 -3 -1 SHEAR DIR 136 123 120 321 358 20 268 269 251 226 225 234 242 227 226 258 312 SST (C) 29.3 29.4 29.5 29.4 29.2 29.1 29.1 29.5 29.2 29.7 29.8 29.7 29.7 29.5 29.6 29.4 29.5 POT. INT. (KT) 156 157 159 157 155 153 154 161 156 165 167 165 165 162 163 159 160 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.6 -53.8 -53.8 -53.7 -53.6 -53.5 -53.4 -53.4 -53.3 -53.1 -52.9 -53.1 -52.9 -53.3 -52.9 -53.2 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 6 6 7 7 8 9 10 9 10 9 10 11 12 11 700-500 MB RH 77 76 78 78 75 73 69 66 57 59 52 57 51 54 50 49 55 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 6 7 8 9 12 12 15 15 15 13 15 14 12 11 10 850 MB ENV VOR 36 37 37 41 43 34 43 48 67 64 64 66 66 52 2 -32 -41 200 MB DIV 64 57 57 44 24 63 87 78 48 60 27 32 22 6 -13 -36 15 700-850 TADV -2 -3 -3 -4 -4 -3 0 -3 7 14 25 18 11 4 6 0 3 LAND (KM) 1523 1504 1488 1475 1467 1511 1352 1166 1014 880 841 592 428 295 61 124 264 LAT (DEG N) 9.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 34.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 6 6 7 9 10 12 13 13 12 12 13 14 14 12 10 9 HEAT CONTENT 30 33 35 35 31 29 24 38 40 56 82 83 77 66 73 96 75 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 558 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 23.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 9.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. 0. 6. 16. 27. 37. 46. 55. 61. 66. 69. 68. 68. 66. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 8. 8. 6. 3. -4. -10. -18. -23. -25. -27. -26. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 3. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -0. -0. 1. 3. 4. 7. 7. 6. 2. 3. 1. -2. -5. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -0. 1. 4. 12. 24. 33. 44. 50. 51. 50. 51. 49. 46. 48. 51. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 9.8 34.7 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942023 INVEST 10/15/23 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 16.0 45.1 to 6.7 0.76 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 32.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.20 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.65 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.0 2.9 to -3.0 0.66 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 136.0 27.0 to 144.1 0.93 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 49.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.37 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 33.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.89 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.9 109.3 to 0.0 0.99 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.4% 30.2% 12.4% 3.5% 3.2% 15.3% 22.2% 37.0% Bayesian: 0.3% 2.3% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.7% 0.3% 14.7% Consensus: 1.2% 10.8% 4.4% 1.2% 1.1% 5.3% 7.5% 17.2% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942023 INVEST 10/15/2023 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 19 20 21 24 32 44 53 64 70 71 70 71 69 66 68 71 18HR AGO 20 19 20 21 24 32 44 53 64 70 71 70 71 69 66 68 71 12HR AGO 20 17 16 17 20 28 40 49 60 66 67 66 67 65 62 64 67 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT