* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942023 10/15/23 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 19 18 19 21 27 36 45 55 63 65 73 75 75 74 75 76 V (KT) LAND 20 19 18 19 21 27 36 45 55 63 65 73 75 75 74 75 76 V (KT) LGEM 20 19 18 18 19 20 23 26 29 33 36 39 41 42 41 41 41 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 1 1 2 6 7 12 9 14 14 14 16 17 22 20 18 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 7 7 3 4 3 1 2 0 1 1 7 7 4 -2 0 -2 SHEAR DIR 175 172 258 343 329 309 279 261 252 239 234 224 231 232 220 223 197 SST (C) 29.2 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.2 29.1 29.0 29.7 29.5 29.4 29.8 29.6 29.7 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.3 POT. INT. (KT) 153 154 157 158 155 153 153 165 161 159 167 163 165 161 161 160 156 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.7 -53.7 -53.7 -53.5 -53.7 -53.5 -53.8 -53.2 -53.6 -53.0 -53.0 -52.6 -52.5 -52.6 -52.5 -52.7 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.3 -0.2 -0.3 -0.2 0.0 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 0.0 -0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 6 7 6 7 8 8 8 8 8 9 9 10 10 10 700-500 MB RH 77 79 80 78 79 77 72 70 65 57 59 62 60 56 53 53 55 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 6 7 7 6 9 10 12 13 12 15 15 14 13 13 10 850 MB ENV VOR 22 22 25 25 16 12 11 17 22 20 35 28 28 23 4 -1 -22 200 MB DIV 45 39 13 11 33 62 53 87 104 69 42 28 51 33 -10 -7 22 700-850 TADV -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 0 -4 -3 0 -1 0 6 4 0 2 -2 1 LAND (KM) 1525 1524 1525 1511 1503 1545 1405 1119 1008 907 856 614 437 353 165 207 329 LAT (DEG N) 9.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 34.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 7 10 10 10 13 13 12 13 13 14 13 13 12 10 8 HEAT CONTENT 28 28 30 33 33 29 25 41 47 45 80 83 77 61 73 82 76 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 576 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 14.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 9.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. 0. 6. 16. 27. 37. 47. 55. 61. 67. 69. 68. 68. 65. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 7. 6. 3. -0. -3. -6. -9. -11. -13. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -7. -8. -9. -9. -8. -8. -7. -6. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 2. 5. 4. 2. 0. -2. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -7. -6. -7. -6. -5. -5. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -1. 1. 7. 16. 25. 35. 43. 45. 53. 55. 55. 54. 55. 56. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 9.5 34.0 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942023 INVEST 10/15/23 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 17.7 45.1 to 6.7 0.71 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 30.4 0.0 to 161.7 0.19 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.51 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.51 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 134.1 27.0 to 144.1 0.91 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 28.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.27 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 20.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.90 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.7% 17.4% 7.2% 2.6% 1.8% 6.4% 10.7% 34.4% Bayesian: 0.3% 2.0% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 3.1% Consensus: 1.0% 6.5% 2.5% 0.9% 0.6% 2.2% 3.6% 12.5% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942023 INVEST 10/15/2023 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 19 18 19 21 27 36 45 55 63 65 73 75 75 74 75 76 18HR AGO 20 19 18 19 21 27 36 45 55 63 65 73 75 75 74 75 76 12HR AGO 20 17 16 17 19 25 34 43 53 61 63 71 73 73 72 73 74 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT