* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942023 10/16/23 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 21 24 27 36 45 57 64 69 73 77 80 81 83 87 86 V (KT) LAND 20 20 21 24 27 36 45 57 64 69 73 77 80 81 83 87 86 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 21 22 23 26 32 38 45 50 54 58 61 63 66 70 73 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 2 6 5 4 3 7 13 13 18 17 16 16 18 13 18 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 6 2 1 3 1 0 -1 -1 1 0 4 2 2 -1 -1 3 SHEAR DIR 140 172 332 356 7 297 306 262 258 267 261 269 248 257 248 252 209 SST (C) 29.6 29.5 29.3 29.2 29.2 29.3 29.5 29.6 29.6 28.8 29.3 29.1 29.0 29.2 29.4 29.2 29.2 POT. INT. (KT) 162 160 156 154 154 156 160 162 163 150 158 155 153 156 159 155 155 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.6 -53.5 -53.3 -53.5 -53.8 -53.7 -53.9 -53.6 -53.5 -53.1 -53.0 -52.3 -52.2 -51.9 -52.2 -52.2 200 MB VXT (C) -0.3 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.8 0.9 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 6 7 6 6 7 8 7 9 8 8 9 9 9 9 700-500 MB RH 79 80 78 78 79 80 76 66 61 61 63 62 64 59 56 59 61 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 7 7 7 9 10 13 13 15 17 19 20 21 22 24 23 850 MB ENV VOR 28 33 34 26 19 28 24 35 24 28 21 14 13 0 -13 -28 -52 200 MB DIV 22 21 17 53 71 90 115 113 124 87 79 70 31 23 21 31 82 700-850 TADV -2 -2 -5 -3 -2 -1 -4 -3 -5 -9 -6 -5 -4 -3 0 1 8 LAND (KM) 1417 1399 1398 1405 1408 1353 1228 1120 1085 1065 1003 835 720 526 470 561 774 LAT (DEG N) 9.2 9.3 9.5 9.7 9.8 10.0 10.3 11.0 12.3 13.7 15.4 17.1 18.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 35.8 36.7 37.6 38.4 39.1 40.5 42.0 43.8 45.8 48.0 50.4 52.8 55.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 8 6 7 8 11 12 14 15 14 12 13 11 10 11 HEAT CONTENT 42 40 33 30 29 28 29 39 49 34 47 46 67 53 77 57 33 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 577 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 32.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 18.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. 0. 6. 16. 27. 38. 47. 55. 60. 65. 66. 65. 64. 62. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 6. 2. -2. -4. -7. -8. -8. -10. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. -9. -8. -7. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 4. 5. 6. 9. 11. 12. 11. 12. 13. 10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -7. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -5. -4. -4. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 4. 7. 16. 25. 37. 44. 49. 53. 57. 60. 61. 63. 67. 66. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 9.2 35.8 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942023 INVEST 10/16/23 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 17.4 45.1 to 6.7 0.72 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 34.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.22 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.63 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.9 to -3.0 0.45 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 136.7 27.0 to 144.1 0.94 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 36.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.31 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 16.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.91 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 7.4% 47.5% 27.9% 19.6% 17.1% 29.3% 34.0% 59.0% Bayesian: 0.4% 6.2% 2.3% 0.3% 0.2% 1.2% 0.4% 16.4% Consensus: 2.6% 17.9% 10.1% 6.6% 5.8% 10.2% 11.5% 25.1% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942023 INVEST 10/16/23 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942023 INVEST 10/16/2023 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 20 21 24 27 36 45 57 64 69 73 77 80 81 83 87 86 18HR AGO 20 19 20 23 26 35 44 56 63 68 72 76 79 80 82 86 85 12HR AGO 20 17 16 19 22 31 40 52 59 64 68 72 75 76 78 82 81 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT