* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP902023 10/16/23 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 23 25 28 37 47 55 61 61 61 59 58 57 56 54 52 V (KT) LAND 20 21 23 25 28 37 47 55 61 61 61 59 58 39 31 28 27 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 21 22 23 25 29 34 39 43 46 47 46 34 29 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 6 8 10 11 9 13 13 14 14 11 9 13 5 8 25 39 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 3 3 0 -6 -7 -5 -6 -2 1 2 8 12 21 17 6 5 SHEAR DIR 70 91 84 67 79 108 105 84 107 142 163 195 191 253 233 234 227 SST (C) 30.0 30.4 30.2 30.0 30.0 30.1 30.3 30.3 30.2 30.0 29.8 30.0 29.8 29.4 29.1 28.8 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 166 170 167 165 164 164 165 165 165 163 161 163 162 159 156 152 150 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -52.5 -52.7 -52.3 -52.1 -53.0 -52.3 -52.8 -52.0 -52.1 -51.4 -51.8 -50.8 -50.7 -50.1 -50.5 -50.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 4 5 5 5 5 5 6 5 7 6 8 5 7 4 6 700-500 MB RH 85 86 84 83 83 82 78 78 77 73 67 63 62 58 53 53 49 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 21 16 16 34 39 37 43 43 50 61 92 82 75 65 72 79 47 200 MB DIV 40 44 57 78 121 142 215 192 193 152 164 41 -1 -41 20 15 49 700-850 TADV 0 2 3 3 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 2 5 10 7 3 3 LAND (KM) 500 569 602 638 657 678 666 622 526 398 271 161 20 -99 -61 -149 -253 LAT (DEG N) 12.0 11.8 11.9 12.0 12.2 12.6 13.0 13.6 14.5 15.5 16.5 17.5 18.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 99.9 101.2 102.3 103.3 104.1 105.5 106.2 106.5 106.3 105.7 105.1 104.7 104.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 12 10 9 8 6 3 4 6 6 6 6 7 10 10 8 7 HEAT CONTENT 29 46 43 34 29 27 28 32 37 47 55 41 26 23 23 18 16 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):250/ 14 CX,CY: -12/ -4 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 447 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 73.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 16.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -2. -1. 6. 16. 25. 32. 37. 41. 45. 49. 52. 54. 57. 60. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 2. 0. -1. -3. -3. -3. -3. -1. 1. 0. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 8. 7. 6. 5. 3. 2. 1. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 7. 8. 8. 7. 4. 2. -0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 8. 17. 27. 35. 41. 41. 41. 39. 38. 37. 36. 34. 32. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 12.0 99.9 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP902023 INVEST 10/16/23 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 146.5 36.9 to 148.5 0.98 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 19.3 30.9 to 7.7 0.50 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 7.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.90 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 68.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.52 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.69 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 36.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.33 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 49.8 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.2 to -2.3 0.35 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.1% 23.4% 7.3% 4.2% 0.9% 14.7% 44.2% 36.5% Bayesian: 0.0% 2.9% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.7% 0.5% 40.8% Consensus: 0.7% 8.8% 2.6% 1.5% 0.3% 5.1% 14.9% 25.8% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902023 INVEST 10/16/23 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##