* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942023 10/16/23 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 20 22 24 32 44 54 62 67 71 70 70 71 73 73 78 V (KT) LAND 20 20 20 22 24 32 44 54 62 67 71 70 70 71 73 73 78 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 21 21 22 25 29 35 40 44 47 49 48 47 48 52 58 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 7 6 6 5 8 8 13 16 17 18 21 23 16 19 9 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 4 3 3 1 0 0 0 -1 4 6 7 1 1 -1 1 0 SHEAR DIR 218 312 313 313 323 318 301 285 264 261 243 252 264 265 252 223 202 SST (C) 29.5 29.3 29.2 29.2 29.3 29.5 29.5 30.0 29.0 29.3 29.3 29.4 29.0 29.1 29.2 29.3 29.2 POT. INT. (KT) 160 156 154 154 156 160 160 170 153 158 158 158 151 153 154 156 154 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.4 -53.2 -53.3 -53.6 -53.4 -54.0 -53.4 -53.8 -53.0 -52.8 -52.3 -52.6 -52.4 -52.2 -52.3 -52.4 200 MB VXT (C) -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.9 0.9 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 7 7 6 6 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 9 9 700-500 MB RH 79 76 77 80 82 80 73 63 59 60 61 63 62 59 59 59 60 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 6 7 6 9 12 14 15 16 18 17 18 18 18 16 18 850 MB ENV VOR 33 28 20 19 23 21 22 18 17 25 16 16 15 4 -5 -21 -22 200 MB DIV 6 8 33 58 74 106 127 146 120 100 102 65 27 5 -21 47 62 700-850 TADV -2 -5 -3 -3 -2 -2 -3 5 7 0 3 1 1 0 -6 0 -1 LAND (KM) 1388 1376 1371 1373 1354 1236 1112 1037 1006 1037 882 739 669 535 456 455 534 LAT (DEG N) 9.2 9.3 9.4 9.5 9.6 9.8 10.3 11.3 12.6 14.1 15.5 16.7 17.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 36.7 37.6 38.5 39.3 40.1 41.6 43.3 45.2 47.3 49.4 51.6 53.6 55.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 8 8 7 8 10 11 12 13 12 10 9 8 8 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 41 35 31 29 29 30 36 59 35 53 48 61 60 59 58 76 67 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 581 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 23.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 12.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. 0. 6. 16. 27. 38. 47. 55. 60. 65. 67. 65. 65. 63. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 5. 3. -2. -6. -10. -13. -14. -15. -15. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -9. -8. -8. -7. -6. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -1. 1. 4. 6. 7. 8. 11. 9. 8. 7. 7. 3. 5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. -0. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -0. 0. 2. 4. 12. 24. 34. 42. 47. 51. 50. 50. 51. 53. 53. 58. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 9.2 36.7 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942023 INVEST 10/16/23 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 18.2 45.1 to 6.7 0.70 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 33.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.20 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.63 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.51 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 136.1 27.0 to 144.1 0.93 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 35.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.30 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 14.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.91 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.9% 23.5% 9.9% 2.8% 1.8% 8.6% 12.8% 30.9% Bayesian: 0.2% 3.8% 1.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.4% 0.1% 2.0% Consensus: 1.0% 9.1% 3.6% 1.0% 0.6% 3.0% 4.3% 11.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942023 INVEST 10/16/23 06 UTC ## ## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942023 INVEST 10/16/2023 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 20 20 22 24 32 44 54 62 67 71 70 70 71 73 73 78 18HR AGO 20 19 19 21 23 31 43 53 61 66 70 69 69 70 72 72 77 12HR AGO 20 17 16 18 20 28 40 50 58 63 67 66 66 67 69 69 74 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT