* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP902023 10/16/23 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 35 40 53 67 80 88 90 89 89 83 81 76 77 75 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 35 40 53 67 80 88 90 89 89 83 81 76 77 75 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 30 32 35 43 55 71 84 91 93 91 84 78 76 79 83 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 11 17 13 11 9 12 14 13 16 16 14 9 12 14 18 25 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 0 -2 -4 -5 -3 -5 -2 -1 3 -1 10 7 3 1 2 SHEAR DIR 78 60 47 56 78 108 105 114 144 154 164 125 138 138 178 186 210 SST (C) 30.2 30.1 29.9 29.8 29.9 30.1 30.3 30.3 30.1 29.7 29.5 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.6 30.2 30.3 POT. INT. (KT) 168 166 163 162 163 164 166 166 164 159 155 156 157 158 160 165 167 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.7 -52.4 -52.2 -52.8 -52.7 -52.8 -52.3 -52.6 -52.0 -51.8 -51.6 -51.4 -50.7 -50.7 -50.4 -49.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.3 1.3 1.5 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 7 6 7 6 7 7 8 6 700-500 MB RH 86 86 83 85 84 83 80 77 74 67 61 59 61 59 55 52 50 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 8 10 11 14 18 23 25 28 30 33 31 31 29 31 29 850 MB ENV VOR 13 17 19 25 26 39 33 47 58 86 93 101 84 92 96 107 119 200 MB DIV 58 51 56 91 110 199 227 220 173 171 132 64 0 -5 -5 13 37 700-850 TADV 1 0 -1 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 588 632 661 678 682 660 612 539 447 364 346 334 245 147 108 97 30 LAT (DEG N) 11.5 11.4 11.5 11.7 12.0 12.7 13.4 14.3 15.4 16.4 16.7 16.9 17.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 100.7 101.8 102.7 103.5 104.2 105.3 105.9 106.2 106.3 106.5 106.7 106.8 106.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 8 8 7 5 5 6 5 4 1 3 6 8 7 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 39 39 33 28 26 28 31 36 42 42 40 40 45 54 31 33 33 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):245/ 12 CX,CY: -10/ -4 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 506 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 62.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 28.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. 1. 7. 16. 24. 30. 34. 37. 39. 43. 46. 48. 50. 53. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -7. -5. -4. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 11. 19. 24. 28. 30. 33. 27. 25. 20. 21. 18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 7. 9. 9. 8. 5. 2. -0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -8. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 5. 3. 1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 10. 15. 28. 42. 55. 63. 65. 64. 64. 58. 56. 51. 52. 50. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 11.5 100.7 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP902023 INVEST 10/16/23 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 139.4 36.9 to 148.5 0.92 8.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.4 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 20.1 30.9 to 7.7 0.47 3.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 3.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.91 -6.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 73.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.55 3.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.36 1.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 33.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.30 0.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 49.8 to 0.0 1.00 1.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.2 to -2.3 0.59 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 23% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 46% is 7.8 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 19.8% 16.7% 0.0% 0.0% 23.1% 45.9% 0.0% Logistic: 1.0% 10.3% 2.7% 1.2% 0.4% 4.4% 26.5% 24.6% Bayesian: 0.6% 11.1% 2.8% 0.6% 0.3% 0.6% 0.9% 20.2% Consensus: 0.5% 13.7% 7.4% 0.6% 0.2% 9.4% 24.4% 14.9% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902023 INVEST 10/16/23 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##