* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942023 10/16/23 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 21 23 27 35 46 56 63 66 67 66 66 66 65 69 72 V (KT) LAND 20 20 21 23 27 35 46 56 63 66 67 66 66 66 65 69 72 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 21 22 23 26 31 36 40 42 44 43 42 41 42 45 51 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 8 7 7 7 10 10 14 16 14 18 18 18 15 14 13 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 2 2 0 -1 -2 2 0 3 6 11 3 8 0 -1 0 2 SHEAR DIR 299 303 313 323 316 324 294 275 260 261 259 258 268 251 249 197 213 SST (C) 29.4 29.5 29.5 29.7 29.8 29.9 30.3 29.6 29.8 29.7 29.4 29.6 29.2 29.6 29.4 29.0 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 158 160 160 163 165 167 172 163 166 164 159 162 155 162 159 151 145 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.1 -53.3 -53.5 -53.6 -53.6 -53.8 -53.5 -53.4 -52.9 -52.9 -52.7 -52.7 -52.6 -52.6 -52.5 -52.9 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.8 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 6 6 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 9 8 700-500 MB RH 75 77 79 81 81 77 70 63 59 63 62 65 63 61 62 63 55 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 7 7 9 11 13 15 17 16 17 16 15 14 12 14 16 850 MB ENV VOR 32 25 25 29 30 23 25 13 21 29 22 22 8 -10 -19 -22 -4 200 MB DIV 13 28 52 72 82 125 140 143 107 97 71 35 20 -16 0 70 65 700-850 TADV -5 -4 -4 -2 -1 -5 -3 4 3 4 5 3 0 -5 -7 0 1 LAND (KM) 1390 1398 1384 1319 1248 1112 996 953 949 919 773 690 607 490 443 566 676 LAT (DEG N) 9.5 9.7 9.8 9.9 10.0 10.3 10.8 11.9 13.1 14.4 15.6 16.9 17.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 38.0 39.0 39.9 40.8 41.6 43.3 45.2 47.2 49.1 51.0 52.7 54.3 56.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 9 8 8 9 11 11 11 11 10 9 9 10 11 8 6 HEAT CONTENT 33 31 32 33 34 38 64 40 57 61 56 67 63 58 72 67 46 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 619 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 42.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 14.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -0. 5. 15. 27. 37. 46. 54. 60. 64. 67. 65. 64. 61. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 1. -3. -7. -10. -13. -14. -14. -14. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -8. -8. -8. -7. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 5. 7. 9. 8. 9. 6. 4. 0. -3. -1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. -0. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 3. 7. 15. 26. 36. 43. 46. 47. 46. 46. 46. 45. 49. 52. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 9.5 38.0 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942023 INVEST 10/16/23 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 17.6 45.1 to 6.7 0.72 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 32.6 0.0 to 161.7 0.20 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.56 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.9 to -3.0 0.58 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 141.3 27.0 to 144.1 0.98 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 49.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.37 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 17.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.91 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 5.2% 41.8% 22.0% 6.9% 4.7% 15.1% 19.7% 35.8% Bayesian: 0.4% 4.4% 0.6% 0.1% 0.1% 0.3% 2.4% 6.1% Consensus: 1.8% 15.4% 7.5% 2.3% 1.6% 5.2% 7.4% 14.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942023 INVEST 10/16/23 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942023 INVEST 10/16/2023 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 20 21 23 27 35 46 56 63 66 67 66 66 66 65 69 72 18HR AGO 20 19 20 22 26 34 45 55 62 65 66 65 65 65 64 68 71 12HR AGO 20 17 16 18 22 30 41 51 58 61 62 61 61 61 60 64 67 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT