* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP902023 10/16/23 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 35 41 48 57 73 87 96 99 97 89 82 75 63 55 49 46 V (KT) LAND 30 35 41 48 57 73 87 96 99 97 89 82 75 63 46 33 29 V (KT) LGEM 30 35 39 44 50 66 87 106 114 110 98 86 72 57 40 31 28 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 12 12 11 10 11 13 14 13 23 16 10 17 20 22 24 35 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 -1 -5 -6 -4 -6 -3 0 4 1 7 8 3 -4 -1 0 SHEAR DIR 76 41 54 74 95 91 95 119 165 178 172 178 174 176 210 220 247 SST (C) 30.1 29.7 29.7 29.8 30.1 30.4 30.3 30.1 30.1 29.7 29.6 29.6 29.6 30.1 29.4 28.7 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 167 162 161 162 164 167 166 165 164 159 158 159 160 165 158 151 151 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.4 -52.3 -52.7 -52.9 -52.2 -52.8 -52.1 -52.1 -51.3 -52.1 -50.9 -51.3 -50.4 -51.0 -50.8 -50.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.7 0.7 1.1 0.9 0.9 0.5 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 7 5 7 6 8 5 8 5 700-500 MB RH 84 82 83 82 83 82 79 79 73 66 63 58 56 56 57 54 50 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 9 11 11 14 18 23 26 28 30 29 28 26 18 12 6 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 17 26 34 26 31 39 41 49 64 85 93 89 81 84 81 81 45 200 MB DIV 45 51 101 123 148 225 242 226 172 190 89 24 -12 17 29 44 29 700-850 TADV 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 2 3 0 -3 -3 15 LAND (KM) 634 684 716 734 741 701 647 539 407 315 261 184 102 75 -38 -238 -453 LAT (DEG N) 11.5 11.5 11.6 11.8 12.0 12.7 13.4 14.5 15.8 16.7 17.3 18.3 19.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 102.1 103.2 104.1 104.8 105.5 106.3 106.6 106.5 106.2 106.1 106.2 106.3 106.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 8 7 6 5 5 7 6 3 4 6 7 8 9 10 9 HEAT CONTENT 34 26 22 22 23 27 29 33 42 41 40 46 44 31 25 20 19 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):255/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 487 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 79.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 55.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 15. 22. 28. 31. 34. 36. 40. 42. 44. 46. 49. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. -0. -2. -4. -6. -7. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 2. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 4. 7. 14. 22. 27. 30. 28. 24. 20. 10. 2. -3. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 8. 10. 10. 8. 5. 2. -0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. RI POTENTIAL 1. 4. 7. 10. 16. 14. 8. 2. -2. -5. -8. -10. -10. -9. -9. -8. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 11. 18. 27. 43. 57. 66. 69. 67. 59. 52. 45. 33. 25. 19. 16. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 11.5 102.1 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP902023 INVEST 10/16/23 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 133.2 36.9 to 148.5 0.86 10.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 4.9 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 17.7 30.9 to 7.7 0.57 4.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 14.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.89 -8.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 93.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.66 4.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.54 3.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 25.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.23 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 49.8 to 0.0 1.00 2.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.2 to -2.3 0.31 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 34% is 2.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 47% is 7.1 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 69% is 11.6 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 68% is 14.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 12.0% 33.7% 23.6% 18.2% 0.0% 47.2% 68.6% 68.4% Logistic: 4.0% 23.9% 9.3% 5.2% 2.1% 9.7% 39.2% 32.0% Bayesian: 5.0% 42.8% 30.3% 13.2% 3.1% 5.2% 4.0% 11.1% Consensus: 7.0% 33.5% 21.1% 12.2% 1.7% 20.7% 37.3% 37.2% DTOPS: 5.0% 26.0% 9.0% 5.0% 2.0% 36.0% 41.0% 64.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902023 INVEST 10/16/23 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##