* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942023 10/16/23 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 25 29 35 46 58 69 72 76 72 69 71 72 72 76 74 V (KT) LAND 20 22 25 29 35 46 58 69 72 76 72 69 71 72 72 76 74 V (KT) LGEM 20 21 22 23 25 31 38 45 49 53 54 50 47 46 47 51 53 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 6 6 6 7 7 9 7 13 20 23 27 14 17 11 24 28 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 1 -1 -2 -1 4 4 9 4 9 4 5 0 -2 -2 2 -1 SHEAR DIR 304 316 337 323 334 352 304 233 244 230 229 226 210 247 261 229 242 SST (C) 29.4 29.5 29.6 29.7 29.8 29.9 29.8 30.0 29.9 29.9 30.1 30.3 30.3 30.5 30.2 29.9 28.8 POT. INT. (KT) 159 160 163 165 167 169 167 171 169 169 172 172 172 171 171 167 147 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.2 -53.4 -53.6 -53.2 -53.5 -52.9 -53.1 -52.7 -52.7 -52.5 -52.5 -52.6 -52.4 -52.6 -52.6 -52.9 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 6 6 8 8 8 9 10 10 10 11 10 10 8 7 700-500 MB RH 77 80 82 80 79 72 66 60 57 55 56 54 53 55 56 45 29 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 8 10 12 14 17 19 17 19 18 17 16 14 14 17 19 850 MB ENV VOR 25 24 31 33 29 28 29 22 55 63 67 43 38 23 13 25 17 200 MB DIV 33 53 91 77 102 125 114 105 66 45 23 -21 0 -1 40 56 20 700-850 TADV -4 -4 -3 -2 -4 -3 8 16 18 15 12 7 4 1 1 -1 -7 LAND (KM) 1408 1394 1312 1221 1138 970 863 792 587 326 234 112 44 39 239 427 594 LAT (DEG N) 9.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 39.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 11 12 13 12 12 14 14 13 12 13 11 9 9 8 7 HEAT CONTENT 31 31 32 31 37 54 43 74 83 78 69 76 86 96 75 59 39 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):281/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 696 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 79.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 28.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -0. 5. 15. 26. 36. 45. 53. 60. 65. 67. 65. 64. 61. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 7. 5. 1. -5. -10. -13. -14. -13. -15. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 9. 12. 9. 12. 9. 7. 4. 0. -0. 3. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. -1. -1. -2. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 7. 5. 3. -0. -3. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -5. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 9. 15. 26. 38. 49. 52. 56. 52. 49. 51. 52. 52. 56. 54. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 9.8 39.1 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942023 INVEST 10/16/23 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 15.1 45.1 to 6.7 0.78 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 32.4 0.0 to 161.7 0.20 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.68 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.51 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 142.6 27.0 to 144.1 0.99 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 71.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.47 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 15.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.91 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 6.8% 52.7% 28.5% 10.7% 7.9% 23.5% 28.0% 28.4% Bayesian: 0.8% 16.6% 3.0% 0.7% 0.2% 3.2% 6.9% 5.6% Consensus: 2.5% 23.1% 10.5% 3.8% 2.7% 8.9% 11.6% 11.3% DTOPS: 0.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942023 INVEST 10/16/23 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942023 INVEST 10/16/2023 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 22 25 29 35 46 58 69 72 76 72 69 71 72 72 76 74 18HR AGO 20 19 22 26 32 43 55 66 69 73 69 66 68 69 69 73 71 12HR AGO 20 17 16 20 26 37 49 60 63 67 63 60 62 63 63 67 65 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT