* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP902023 10/16/23 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 35 42 51 60 78 91 95 94 84 77 71 70 66 65 64 62 V (KT) LAND 30 35 42 51 60 78 91 95 94 84 77 71 70 66 65 64 62 V (KT) LGEM 30 33 37 41 47 63 82 95 100 93 84 78 77 79 82 88 91 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 11 11 9 14 11 11 13 17 24 23 20 17 16 11 18 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -5 -8 -8 -4 -6 1 3 3 0 1 3 4 -1 0 8 SHEAR DIR 45 49 70 86 103 118 123 160 146 157 160 161 153 189 202 202 208 SST (C) 29.9 29.8 30.0 30.2 30.3 29.5 29.2 29.2 29.3 29.4 29.6 29.4 28.8 28.8 29.0 29.3 29.8 POT. INT. (KT) 164 162 165 168 168 158 155 155 155 156 159 156 150 149 151 156 161 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.1 -52.7 -52.8 -52.4 -52.5 -52.5 -52.1 -51.5 -51.5 -51.4 -51.2 -50.7 -50.6 -50.3 -50.2 -49.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.2 1.2 1.4 0.9 1.2 1.5 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 7 6 7 7 8 8 9 8 8 700-500 MB RH 82 83 83 81 77 75 75 68 61 54 50 45 44 42 41 37 38 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 11 12 14 16 21 25 27 29 26 27 27 31 30 31 31 30 850 MB ENV VOR 28 30 20 28 39 45 58 67 85 84 86 69 67 59 42 57 69 200 MB DIV 74 107 126 146 191 197 180 165 172 109 74 11 -17 20 43 38 69 700-850 TADV 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 3 2 -2 0 -3 0 1 2 LAND (KM) 659 666 679 671 672 680 611 514 445 396 380 355 326 291 252 194 136 LAT (DEG N) 11.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 103.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 8 10 11 9 6 5 5 4 4 5 5 4 2 2 5 6 HEAT CONTENT 30 27 26 27 28 23 22 29 38 49 53 41 24 22 26 28 30 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 507 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 88.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 68.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. 0. 2. 7. 14. 21. 25. 28. 31. 33. 35. 37. 38. 40. 43. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. -2. -5. -8. -9. -9. -8. -7. -6. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -0. 2. 3. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 5. 8. 15. 22. 26. 23. 24. 23. 25. 22. 20. 19. 17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 5. 8. 9. 8. 7. 4. 1. -0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. RI POTENTIAL 2. 5. 9. 13. 21. 19. 10. 2. -3. -7. -11. -13. -13. -12. -12. -11. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 12. 21. 30. 48. 61. 65. 64. 54. 47. 41. 40. 36. 35. 34. 32. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 11.7 103.1 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP902023 INVEST 10/16/23 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 135.3 36.9 to 148.5 0.88 15.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 6.4 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 16.1 30.9 to 7.7 0.64 7.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 24.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.88 -12.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 128.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.84 9.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 2.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.61 5.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 27.6 2.7 to 103.4 0.25 1.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 49.8 to 0.0 1.00 3.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.47 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 54% is 4.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 39% is 4.6 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 4.2 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 58% is 8.7 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 72% is 12.3 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 67% is 14.2 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 12.8% 54.0% 39.2% 26.2% 0.0% 58.0% 72.3% 66.6% Logistic: 8.1% 42.6% 20.3% 13.7% 10.7% 19.7% 51.1% 14.8% Bayesian: 7.0% 30.9% 26.4% 8.1% 1.1% 8.3% 9.5% 19.0% Consensus: 9.3% 42.5% 28.6% 16.0% 3.9% 28.7% 44.3% 33.5% DTOPS: 6.0% 39.0% 16.0% 8.0% 4.0% 34.0% 43.0% 86.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902023 INVEST 10/16/23 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##