* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942023 10/17/23 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 26 30 35 48 59 69 75 74 74 76 76 80 76 78 77 V (KT) LAND 20 22 26 30 35 48 59 69 75 74 74 76 76 80 76 78 78 V (KT) LGEM 20 21 22 23 26 31 37 44 50 53 55 54 53 53 55 59 59 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 9 10 9 7 10 7 8 12 19 21 20 15 12 26 29 38 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -2 -1 0 3 6 9 8 9 1 -2 -5 0 2 4 11 SHEAR DIR 312 331 324 331 340 350 335 266 242 236 229 228 210 230 186 202 196 SST (C) 29.5 29.6 29.6 29.7 30.0 29.7 30.1 29.8 29.9 30.2 30.4 30.3 30.5 30.2 29.1 28.4 27.3 POT. INT. (KT) 160 163 163 165 171 166 173 168 169 172 173 174 172 172 155 144 129 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.4 -53.5 -53.2 -53.5 -53.4 -53.2 -52.9 -52.7 -52.6 -52.3 -52.4 -52.1 -52.4 -52.0 -52.1 -51.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.8 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 6 6 7 8 9 10 10 11 10 10 8 7 5 3 700-500 MB RH 82 83 82 80 77 70 66 61 57 58 56 56 57 61 52 44 33 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 8 10 12 12 16 18 20 21 20 21 22 20 21 20 23 26 850 MB ENV VOR 17 27 32 30 30 35 33 49 62 72 70 54 38 54 39 38 24 200 MB DIV 55 83 81 98 131 143 99 84 64 48 -21 7 -26 17 34 110 134 700-850 TADV -4 -2 -2 -5 -9 -2 11 18 14 20 9 7 4 2 0 4 -4 LAND (KM) 1414 1343 1262 1175 1096 912 787 731 395 214 117 48 186 392 580 885 1207 LAT (DEG N) 10.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 39.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 11 11 13 14 14 15 15 12 13 16 12 11 14 14 15 HEAT CONTENT 31 31 30 33 47 41 59 77 79 74 75 83 85 67 37 24 12 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 658 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 63.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 29.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -1. 5. 15. 26. 36. 45. 52. 58. 63. 65. 63. 61. 57. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. -2. -6. -10. -12. -13. -13. -16. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 3. 7. 10. 14. 15. 14. 14. 15. 10. 11. 8. 11. 14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -2. -2. -3. -3. -5. -7. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 1. 0. -0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 8. 5. 3. -0. -3. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -5. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 6. 10. 15. 28. 39. 49. 55. 54. 54. 56. 56. 60. 56. 58. 57. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 10.0 39.7 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942023 INVEST 10/17/23 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 16.6 45.1 to 6.7 0.74 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 34.4 0.0 to 161.7 0.21 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.57 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.9 to -3.0 0.49 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 144.2 27.0 to 144.1 1.00 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 89.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.55 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 15.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.91 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.6% 33.0% 12.7% 3.4% 2.0% 9.1% 19.3% 25.6% Bayesian: 0.6% 9.0% 1.6% 0.3% 0.1% 1.2% 2.8% 5.1% Consensus: 1.4% 14.0% 4.8% 1.2% 0.7% 3.4% 7.4% 10.2% DTOPS: 0.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942023 INVEST 10/17/23 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942023 INVEST 10/17/2023 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 22 26 30 35 48 59 69 75 74 74 76 76 80 76 78 78 18HR AGO 20 19 23 27 32 45 56 66 72 71 71 73 73 77 73 75 75 12HR AGO 20 17 16 20 25 38 49 59 65 64 64 66 66 70 66 68 68 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT