* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP902023 10/17/23 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 35 43 52 63 80 91 93 89 78 74 70 65 64 62 57 53 V (KT) LAND 30 35 43 52 63 80 91 93 89 78 74 70 65 64 62 57 53 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 35 39 45 60 75 85 88 83 78 76 76 78 82 81 72 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 4 4 10 12 10 16 17 16 21 17 20 18 17 20 15 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 -8 -6 -2 -1 0 2 8 3 5 2 2 -1 0 9 6 SHEAR DIR 35 21 107 140 136 132 152 152 157 175 156 156 162 202 197 214 199 SST (C) 29.8 30.0 30.2 30.3 30.0 29.6 29.6 29.5 29.4 29.5 29.1 28.7 29.2 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.6 POT. INT. (KT) 163 166 167 167 163 159 159 158 157 158 153 149 154 155 154 157 159 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.5 -52.7 -52.2 -51.8 -52.6 -51.8 -52.1 -51.4 -51.7 -50.9 -51.0 -50.6 -50.7 -50.2 -50.2 -49.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.7 1.0 1.6 1.5 1.3 0.7 0.9 1.3 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 7 6 8 6 9 6 9 6 7 700-500 MB RH 84 84 81 78 78 78 75 68 56 49 46 45 46 43 40 36 33 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 13 15 17 20 24 27 29 28 26 29 30 29 30 30 27 24 850 MB ENV VOR 24 14 22 32 35 48 58 61 86 80 79 67 60 47 40 40 54 200 MB DIV 100 124 143 177 212 199 216 162 124 14 29 7 14 63 55 51 83 700-850 TADV 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 3 2 0 -1 -2 0 1 -6 LAND (KM) 657 659 645 649 664 621 529 452 399 353 323 326 211 172 176 142 79 LAT (DEG N) 11.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 103.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 12 10 8 6 5 5 5 5 5 4 5 4 1 0 4 5 HEAT CONTENT 28 28 28 29 27 25 29 35 50 51 35 22 30 36 39 35 28 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 556 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 77.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. 0. 1. 6. 13. 19. 24. 27. 29. 31. 34. 36. 37. 39. 42. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -1. 1. 4. 5. 6. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 4. 7. 9. 15. 21. 23. 20. 23. 23. 20. 19. 18. 14. 10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 8. 7. 6. 4. 1. -0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. RI POTENTIAL 2. 6. 10. 15. 24. 22. 12. 3. -3. -8. -13. -15. -15. -15. -14. -13. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 13. 22. 33. 50. 61. 63. 59. 48. 44. 40. 35. 34. 32. 27. 23. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 11.9 103.5 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP902023 INVEST 10/17/23 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 135.4 36.9 to 148.5 0.88 17.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 5.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 13.4 30.9 to 7.7 0.75 10.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 24.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.88 -13.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 151.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.96 11.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 2.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.67 6.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 28.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.25 1.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 3.3 49.8 to 0.0 0.93 3.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.53 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 66% is 5.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 46% is 5.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 33% is 5.3 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 60% is 8.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 70% is 11.9 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 65% is 13.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 14.3% 66.1% 46.0% 33.1% 0.0% 59.7% 70.2% 64.9% Logistic: 11.9% 49.6% 29.0% 21.1% 11.7% 29.2% 50.6% 10.0% Bayesian: 3.1% 21.8% 14.1% 4.8% 0.7% 5.8% 3.8% 5.1% Consensus: 9.7% 45.8% 29.7% 19.7% 4.1% 31.5% 41.6% 26.7% DTOPS: 7.0% 46.0% 22.0% 10.0% 4.0% 40.0% 44.0% 58.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902023 INVEST 10/17/23 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##