* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942023 10/17/23 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 30 35 41 48 62 70 78 78 75 71 72 73 75 72 70 61 V (KT) LAND 25 30 35 41 48 62 70 78 78 75 71 72 73 75 72 70 61 V (KT) LGEM 25 28 30 33 37 45 54 62 65 64 61 59 59 60 61 57 49 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 13 12 9 3 5 9 13 20 20 23 9 13 19 32 33 41 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -3 -2 0 3 7 8 4 8 3 0 0 2 6 4 7 11 SHEAR DIR 311 298 302 305 282 319 245 249 239 246 240 246 231 198 187 186 214 SST (C) 29.6 29.6 29.6 30.1 29.9 29.8 29.9 29.8 30.0 30.3 30.3 30.3 30.2 28.9 28.3 27.7 26.8 POT. INT. (KT) 163 163 163 173 169 167 169 168 171 173 173 172 172 150 142 134 123 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.4 -53.1 -53.4 -53.4 -52.8 -53.0 -52.4 -52.4 -52.2 -51.9 -51.9 -51.9 -51.7 -52.0 -52.0 -52.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.8 0.7 0.9 0.9 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 7 7 8 9 9 9 10 10 10 9 8 6 4 3 700-500 MB RH 81 79 77 74 73 67 60 60 54 57 58 58 62 53 47 37 31 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 10 11 12 14 18 19 21 21 20 19 19 18 19 20 21 19 850 MB ENV VOR 28 32 28 29 26 30 24 45 48 58 44 27 8 -1 -6 -16 7 200 MB DIV 65 70 87 115 136 118 88 79 29 25 -14 19 26 52 68 105 75 700-850 TADV -1 -2 -4 -8 -6 4 14 18 18 20 11 9 4 6 7 5 -2 LAND (KM) 1333 1265 1206 1109 1028 862 820 512 271 152 37 94 341 573 787 1043 1351 LAT (DEG N) 10.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 41.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 13 14 14 14 14 15 14 13 13 13 11 10 12 13 14 HEAT CONTENT 30 29 31 51 52 49 82 88 78 74 79 97 68 43 37 19 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 711 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 90.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 45.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -1. 0. 5. 14. 25. 34. 42. 49. 54. 58. 59. 56. 54. 50. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 1. -4. -9. -10. -10. -11. -13. -15. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 10. 13. 13. 12. 11. 9. 7. 7. 8. 8. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 2. 2. 1. -0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 2. 4. 7. 11. 15. 14. 10. 5. -0. -5. -9. -10. -10. -11. -11. -10. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 10. 16. 23. 37. 45. 53. 53. 50. 46. 47. 48. 50. 47. 45. 36. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 10.5 41.0 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942023 INVEST 10/17/23 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 7.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 17.1 45.1 to 6.7 0.73 4.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 38.6 0.0 to 161.7 0.24 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.68 2.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.07 0.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.9 to -3.0 0.52 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 141.1 27.0 to 144.1 0.97 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 94.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.57 1.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 40.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.88 1.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 40% is 3.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 20% is 4.2 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.2% 40.4% 21.2% 8.3% 0.0% 0.0% 19.6% 0.0% Logistic: 12.9% 58.2% 32.3% 11.6% 7.9% 20.9% 23.0% 12.6% Bayesian: 4.4% 52.0% 12.1% 3.3% 2.3% 15.7% 6.2% 5.9% Consensus: 7.2% 50.2% 21.9% 7.7% 3.4% 12.2% 16.3% 6.2% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942023 INVEST 10/17/23 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942023 INVEST 10/17/2023 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 30 35 41 48 62 70 78 78 75 71 72 73 75 72 70 61 18HR AGO 25 24 29 35 42 56 64 72 72 69 65 66 67 69 66 64 55 12HR AGO 25 22 21 27 34 48 56 64 64 61 57 58 59 61 58 56 47 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 22 36 44 52 52 49 45 46 47 49 46 44 35 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT