* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP902023 10/17/23 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 35 41 50 59 74 81 83 74 65 61 59 58 57 53 50 32 V (KT) LAND 30 35 41 50 59 74 81 83 74 65 61 59 58 57 53 50 32 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 35 38 43 54 66 71 69 63 61 62 67 71 70 60 40 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 1 4 10 10 8 12 19 17 23 25 26 20 19 15 21 24 33 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -7 -7 -5 -1 0 4 8 8 0 0 -2 0 3 9 9 14 SHEAR DIR 327 154 158 141 142 154 174 168 179 176 176 184 204 209 203 199 224 SST (C) 30.1 30.1 30.2 30.1 29.9 29.8 29.6 29.4 29.5 29.2 28.8 29.1 29.4 29.4 29.5 29.5 29.5 POT. INT. (KT) 166 167 167 165 162 161 159 157 158 154 150 153 156 154 155 156 156 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.7 -52.2 -51.8 -52.1 -52.2 -52.3 -51.7 -51.7 -51.4 -51.3 -50.8 -50.9 -50.6 -50.8 -50.7 -50.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.8 0.8 1.3 1.3 1.1 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.2 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 6 5 6 6 7 6 7 6 7 6 8 7 7 5 700-500 MB RH 83 81 78 77 77 75 68 60 51 49 46 47 46 43 43 40 28 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 15 17 20 21 25 26 28 26 24 26 27 28 29 27 26 6 850 MB ENV VOR 11 22 24 36 40 59 56 82 71 70 51 51 46 38 59 53 68 200 MB DIV 116 130 157 182 149 201 184 126 53 37 12 38 17 54 44 72 33 700-850 TADV 1 -1 0 0 -1 0 0 2 3 4 0 0 -2 0 0 1 2 LAND (KM) 595 581 567 576 594 533 424 361 310 284 293 234 126 96 124 114 46 LAT (DEG N) 12.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 104.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 9 6 5 5 6 5 6 4 5 5 3 1 1 2 3 HEAT CONTENT 35 32 32 32 29 30 38 48 54 38 23 24 32 29 29 28 26 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 586 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 69.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. 1. 5. 12. 17. 22. 24. 27. 28. 31. 33. 35. 37. 40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. -1. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -10. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -0. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 4. 6. 8. 12. 17. 16. 14. 16. 17. 16. 16. 12. 10. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 7. 6. 5. 3. 1. -0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. RI POTENTIAL 2. 5. 9. 14. 21. 19. 11. 2. -3. -7. -11. -13. -13. -13. -12. -12. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 11. 20. 29. 44. 51. 53. 44. 35. 31. 29. 28. 27. 23. 20. 2. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 12.8 104.0 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP902023 INVEST 10/17/23 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 135.2 36.9 to 148.5 0.88 21.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 6.9 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 12.2 30.9 to 7.7 0.81 13.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 32.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.87 -16.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 146.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.93 13.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 3.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.72 8.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 32.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.29 2.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 2.0 49.8 to 0.0 0.96 4.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.54 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 73% is 5.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 56% is 6.5 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 39% is 6.3 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 71% is 10.6 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 72% is 12.2 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 61% is 13.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 15.7% 72.6% 56.2% 39.3% 0.0% 70.8% 72.3% 61.3% Logistic: 17.8% 62.6% 43.2% 33.4% 22.5% 44.5% 49.0% 6.5% Bayesian: 4.7% 21.9% 17.3% 6.0% 0.7% 7.7% 3.9% 53.0% Consensus: 12.7% 52.4% 38.9% 26.2% 7.7% 41.0% 41.7% 40.3% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902023 INVEST 10/17/23 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##