* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP902023 10/17/23 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 35 42 50 58 72 79 75 70 63 59 53 52 52 46 36 33 V (KT) LAND 30 35 42 50 58 72 79 75 70 63 59 53 52 52 46 36 33 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 35 38 42 52 61 63 61 59 57 56 58 60 52 45 42 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 11 10 11 12 16 17 20 20 18 21 19 14 19 23 27 38 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -8 -3 -1 -1 -5 0 4 4 2 4 0 0 3 5 6 14 9 SHEAR DIR 108 148 129 138 119 147 164 176 186 172 182 208 214 206 215 215 232 SST (C) 29.7 29.9 29.8 29.4 29.1 29.2 29.4 29.4 29.5 28.9 28.8 29.0 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.0 29.1 POT. INT. (KT) 162 163 161 157 154 155 157 157 158 151 150 151 153 151 152 150 152 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.1 -51.7 -52.0 -52.4 -51.9 -52.0 -51.6 -51.7 -51.2 -51.2 -50.9 -50.9 -50.4 -50.6 -50.6 -51.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.6 1.1 1.7 1.2 0.7 0.9 1.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 6 6 5 6 6 7 5 8 5 9 6 9 6 7 4 700-500 MB RH 80 78 77 76 75 73 63 57 49 47 45 40 36 36 33 27 17 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 17 20 22 23 27 28 26 26 25 26 25 25 26 21 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 20 35 39 43 44 49 54 67 47 49 30 18 20 26 26 27 27 200 MB DIV 130 178 159 149 151 190 124 92 24 30 -18 23 41 45 22 12 -15 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 -2 -1 0 0 3 3 2 1 -2 0 0 -4 3 6 LAND (KM) 680 663 657 661 656 550 452 407 361 361 274 204 148 115 115 105 51 LAT (DEG N) 12.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 105.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 6 5 5 6 6 6 6 5 4 3 2 0 1 1 2 HEAT CONTENT 24 27 27 25 21 25 41 51 43 24 22 30 33 29 29 26 23 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 507 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 66.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. 0. 1. 6. 12. 17. 21. 24. 26. 27. 29. 31. 33. 34. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. -10. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 6. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 3. 5. 6. 8. 12. 13. 14. 13. 14. 12. 11. 11. 5. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 1. -0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -3. -4. -5. RI POTENTIAL 2. 5. 9. 13. 20. 18. 10. 2. -3. -7. -10. -12. -12. -12. -11. -11. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 12. 20. 28. 42. 49. 45. 40. 33. 29. 24. 22. 22. 16. 6. 3. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 12.7 105.8 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP902023 INVEST 10/17/23 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 129.3 36.9 to 148.5 0.83 14.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 5.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 15.9 30.9 to 7.7 0.65 7.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 45.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.86 -11.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 153.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.97 10.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 2.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.64 5.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 24.8 2.7 to 103.4 0.22 1.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 4.6 49.8 to 0.0 0.91 2.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.2 to -2.3 0.48 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 54% is 4.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 37% is 4.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 38% is 5.7 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 50% is 8.5 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 56% is 11.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 13.9% 54.3% 37.2% 22.8% 0.0% 38.4% 50.2% 55.9% Logistic: 5.4% 28.9% 14.7% 9.2% 5.2% 15.1% 25.2% 4.9% Bayesian: 1.8% 13.9% 7.9% 2.6% 0.2% 1.3% 1.2% 10.8% Consensus: 7.0% 32.4% 19.9% 11.5% 1.8% 18.2% 25.5% 23.8% DTOPS: 5.0% 41.0% 20.0% 11.0% 5.0% 20.0% 27.0% 85.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902023 INVEST 10/17/23 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##