* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP902023 10/17/23 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 41 50 59 67 80 82 77 69 64 59 53 49 45 37 26 20 V (KT) LAND 35 41 50 59 67 80 82 77 69 64 59 53 49 45 37 26 23 V (KT) LGEM 35 39 44 50 56 68 75 74 71 68 67 67 67 63 50 41 34 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 7 9 11 13 20 18 20 15 24 22 18 17 25 26 41 57 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -3 -5 -6 -3 4 4 6 8 4 -6 0 4 7 7 11 -1 SHEAR DIR 130 119 113 117 140 172 179 202 199 191 202 208 209 215 218 218 228 SST (C) 30.0 29.7 29.2 28.8 28.6 28.9 29.3 29.6 29.2 28.6 28.8 28.5 28.6 28.6 28.9 29.2 30.0 POT. INT. (KT) 165 160 155 151 149 152 156 159 155 149 150 145 146 147 150 153 162 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -51.8 -52.1 -52.3 -52.2 -52.1 -51.9 -51.9 -51.5 -51.2 -51.5 -51.3 -50.9 -50.6 -50.8 -51.2 -52.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.9 1.7 1.4 0.7 0.8 1.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 6 6 7 6 7 6 7 6 7 6 5 5 5 700-500 MB RH 78 78 78 77 76 71 61 54 47 45 41 39 39 39 34 26 23 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 18 21 23 24 27 26 24 23 25 24 23 22 19 13 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 29 37 41 41 46 55 61 52 44 27 23 18 26 35 46 48 34 200 MB DIV 161 142 122 118 157 173 132 49 29 11 21 7 36 23 54 24 27 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 -1 0 0 2 2 3 1 2 0 0 0 -1 1 12 LAND (KM) 717 718 719 677 639 552 480 436 423 292 185 128 114 84 41 15 -15 LAT (DEG N) 12.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 107.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 4 2 1 2 2 2 3 HEAT CONTENT 28 26 22 19 17 24 40 51 34 20 26 19 20 19 19 22 28 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 602 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 68.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 15. 18. 20. 21. 22. 23. 25. 26. 28. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -10. -14. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 3. 5. 7. 8. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. 9. 7. 4. -3. -10. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. -0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. RI POTENTIAL 2. 5. 9. 13. 21. 19. 10. 2. -3. -7. -11. -13. -13. -12. -12. -11. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 6. 15. 24. 32. 45. 47. 42. 34. 29. 24. 18. 14. 10. 2. -9. -15. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 12.9 107.0 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP902023 INVEST 10/17/23 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 120.9 36.9 to 148.5 0.75 14.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 6.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 14.7 30.9 to 7.7 0.70 9.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 50.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.85 -12.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 140.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.90 10.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 4.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.65 6.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 22.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.20 1.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.2 49.8 to 0.0 0.98 3.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.0 2.2 to -2.3 0.50 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 59% is 4.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 42% is 4.9 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 30% is 4.8 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 3.9 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 40% is 5.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 51% is 8.6 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 51% is 11.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 15.7% 59.4% 42.4% 29.7% 16.6% 39.8% 50.9% 51.5% Logistic: 7.5% 26.9% 13.3% 8.9% 5.3% 9.0% 14.9% 4.1% Bayesian: 8.4% 25.6% 27.7% 10.0% 2.5% 0.7% 0.5% 5.0% Consensus: 10.5% 37.3% 27.8% 16.2% 8.1% 16.5% 22.1% 20.2% DTOPS: 18.0% 48.0% 38.0% 27.0% 14.0% 30.0% 67.0% 82.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902023 INVEST 10/17/23 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##