* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942023 10/18/23 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 35 42 50 57 68 73 74 72 71 70 67 64 64 60 55 46 V (KT) LAND 30 35 42 50 57 68 73 74 72 71 70 67 64 64 60 55 46 V (KT) LGEM 30 33 36 39 43 49 54 57 59 59 59 58 57 56 53 48 40 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 15 12 9 9 7 12 11 14 16 19 14 23 26 24 30 40 70 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 1 5 3 5 8 10 14 5 1 3 1 1 3 6 10 12 SHEAR DIR 298 291 291 292 300 288 273 253 255 249 229 239 218 226 202 211 203 SST (C) 29.8 29.6 29.4 29.8 29.9 30.0 29.8 30.0 30.0 30.1 30.1 29.8 28.8 28.4 27.4 26.2 25.3 POT. INT. (KT) 167 164 160 167 169 171 167 171 170 171 171 166 150 145 132 118 109 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.5 -53.4 -52.7 -52.9 -52.8 -52.2 -52.1 -51.7 -51.8 -51.5 -51.7 -51.6 -52.3 -52.2 -51.7 -51.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 8 8 9 9 9 10 9 10 9 8 5 5 4 3 700-500 MB RH 74 70 69 67 65 59 58 57 59 61 61 63 53 44 38 37 33 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 13 17 19 19 22 21 20 20 21 21 20 21 22 21 20 18 850 MB ENV VOR 21 18 21 20 21 19 31 39 49 30 26 8 -2 -13 4 42 73 200 MB DIV 112 112 126 119 96 67 94 56 9 34 14 37 61 89 103 85 31 700-850 TADV -9 -7 -6 -4 -2 8 20 21 14 12 4 0 1 11 9 -13 -71 LAND (KM) 1115 1044 971 892 836 663 411 230 91 63 113 292 569 909 1306 1582 1458 LAT (DEG N) 11.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 44.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 14 15 14 14 14 13 14 14 12 8 8 11 14 17 18 16 14 HEAT CONTENT 50 46 38 54 74 80 79 66 76 78 89 78 34 33 17 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 13 CX,CY: -11/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 707 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 54.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 6. 14. 23. 31. 38. 44. 49. 52. 52. 48. 46. 42. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 1. -1. -6. -8. -11. -13. -15. -15. -16. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -6. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 4. 5. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 5. 5. 5. 3. 1. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 3. 1. -0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 2. 5. 9. 13. 19. 18. 13. 6. -0. -7. -11. -13. -13. -13. -14. -13. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 12. 20. 27. 38. 43. 44. 42. 41. 40. 37. 34. 34. 30. 25. 16. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 11.8 44.7 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942023 INVEST 10/18/23 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 6.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 22.4 45.1 to 6.7 0.59 3.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 52.4 0.0 to 161.7 0.32 1.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.71 3.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.20 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.9 to -3.0 0.44 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 135.6 27.0 to 144.1 0.93 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 113.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.66 1.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 100.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.82 1.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.7 109.3 to 0.0 0.98 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 40% is 3.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.9% 39.6% 20.6% 9.8% 7.7% 12.5% 14.6% 16.4% Logistic: 7.7% 29.8% 16.1% 6.8% 2.2% 4.8% 3.1% 1.2% Bayesian: 2.9% 15.5% 11.8% 2.1% 1.3% 6.1% 4.0% 1.0% Consensus: 5.2% 28.3% 16.2% 6.2% 3.7% 7.8% 7.2% 6.2% DTOPS: 1.0% 20.0% 4.0% 1.0% 0.0% 5.0% 8.0% 24.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942023 INVEST 10/18/23 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942023 INVEST 10/18/2023 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 3( 3) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 35 42 50 57 68 73 74 72 71 70 67 64 64 60 55 46 18HR AGO 30 29 36 44 51 62 67 68 66 65 64 61 58 58 54 49 40 12HR AGO 30 27 26 34 41 52 57 58 56 55 54 51 48 48 44 39 30 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 27 38 43 44 42 41 40 37 34 34 30 25 16 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT