* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NORMA EP172023 10/18/23 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 53 62 70 78 84 84 76 66 63 58 54 50 47 44 34 31 V (KT) LAND 45 53 62 70 78 84 84 76 66 63 58 54 50 47 44 34 31 V (KT) LGEM 45 53 60 68 74 81 81 77 73 70 69 67 66 62 54 47 46 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 10 11 14 17 18 18 18 18 21 19 16 23 25 24 29 46 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -4 -3 0 4 5 5 4 7 0 -2 6 6 3 4 13 0 SHEAR DIR 122 123 120 142 154 166 180 203 184 188 198 218 217 229 220 226 231 SST (C) 29.6 29.1 28.8 28.8 29.0 29.2 29.5 29.5 29.0 28.6 28.9 29.0 29.6 30.0 30.2 30.4 30.8 POT. INT. (KT) 160 154 151 151 153 154 158 158 153 149 151 151 157 161 163 165 167 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.9 -52.2 -52.1 -51.8 -52.1 -51.6 -51.8 -50.9 -51.3 -51.1 -50.7 -50.0 -50.3 -50.4 -51.0 -51.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.7 1.1 1.6 1.2 0.7 0.9 1.4 1.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 6 6 6 7 6 7 6 8 6 9 5 7 5 7 700-500 MB RH 78 77 76 73 72 61 56 50 46 43 40 38 38 38 38 35 25 MODEL VTX (KT) 20 22 24 25 27 27 26 25 23 26 25 25 23 22 19 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 32 37 43 46 56 50 59 51 44 33 30 31 37 56 65 91 16 200 MB DIV 147 149 149 166 179 132 68 39 17 22 9 20 19 24 72 56 -11 700-850 TADV 0 -2 0 0 0 0 2 3 3 4 0 0 0 0 -6 13 8 LAND (KM) 708 677 644 597 553 501 460 438 404 282 150 61 24 7 27 64 104 LAT (DEG N) 13.4 14.0 14.5 15.1 15.7 16.6 17.5 18.4 19.3 20.4 21.6 22.4 22.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 107.6 108.0 108.3 108.4 108.5 108.7 108.9 109.3 109.9 110.2 110.3 110.2 109.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 6 6 5 3 2 2 2 2 2 HEAT CONTENT 26 22 19 20 24 36 48 46 27 20 28 23 27 29 31 32 34 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 9 CX,CY: -6/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 574 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 68.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 10. 12. 13. 13. 13. 15. 17. 19. 21. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -9. -10. -12. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 7. 6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 4. 6. 5. 6. 6. 4. 9. 7. 7. 4. 2. -1. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. -0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -5. RI POTENTIAL 2. 5. 9. 13. 21. 19. 10. 2. -3. -7. -11. -13. -13. -12. -12. -11. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 8. 17. 25. 33. 39. 39. 31. 21. 18. 13. 9. 5. 2. -1. -11. -14. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 13.4 107.6 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP172023 NORMA 10/18/23 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 108.8 36.9 to 148.5 0.64 16.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.56 12.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 19.5 30.9 to 7.7 0.49 8.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 83.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.82 -15.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 158.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.99 14.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 9.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.65 7.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 22.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.19 1.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 49.8 to 0.0 1.00 4.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.2 to -2.3 0.58 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 37% is 5.9 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 68% is 5.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 58% is 6.8 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 44% is 7.1 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 5.9 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 61% is 9.1 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 60% is 10.1 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 45% is 9.5 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 36.9% 68.2% 58.5% 43.7% 24.9% 60.8% 59.5% 44.5% Logistic: 25.0% 47.3% 31.2% 27.2% 13.7% 24.4% 11.3% 2.1% Bayesian: 20.6% 31.6% 21.6% 11.5% 3.7% 3.2% 1.4% 0.4% Consensus: 27.5% 49.0% 37.1% 27.5% 14.1% 29.5% 24.1% 15.7% DTOPS: 37.0% 66.0% 48.0% 40.0% 19.0% 50.0% 62.0% 64.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172023 NORMA 10/18/23 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##