* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942023 10/18/23 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 39 45 50 59 65 69 70 71 70 69 65 62 57 56 49 V (KT) LAND 30 34 39 45 50 59 65 69 70 71 70 69 65 62 57 56 49 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 33 35 37 41 45 48 50 50 51 51 51 47 45 44 39 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 13 12 11 8 11 10 13 13 17 14 17 23 30 28 46 55 52 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 4 0 0 2 4 12 12 3 5 5 4 1 0 5 7 25 SHEAR DIR 288 284 277 273 284 294 249 255 262 254 240 212 206 210 215 200 208 SST (C) 29.6 29.4 29.7 29.9 29.9 29.9 29.9 30.0 30.0 30.1 29.8 28.9 28.9 28.5 27.0 25.9 25.7 POT. INT. (KT) 163 160 166 170 169 169 169 171 170 172 166 150 151 146 127 117 115 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.5 -53.0 -53.0 -53.1 -52.5 -52.4 -51.8 -51.8 -51.5 -51.7 -51.5 -51.6 -51.9 -52.2 -51.9 -52.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.9 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 8 8 9 9 10 10 10 9 9 7 5 4 3 2 700-500 MB RH 70 68 67 65 61 58 55 55 57 58 63 60 57 50 50 48 49 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 14 16 18 18 19 20 20 20 20 20 21 21 20 20 23 23 850 MB ENV VOR 18 19 15 19 16 24 27 33 23 6 -3 -21 -21 -37 5 61 81 200 MB DIV 99 118 107 96 75 68 65 46 12 21 15 54 52 98 107 124 153 700-850 TADV -7 -6 -5 -6 -1 7 16 17 8 7 1 5 3 8 -1 -60 -1 LAND (KM) 1055 975 910 854 782 533 283 166 58 158 328 522 730 1026 1417 1490 1320 LAT (DEG N) 12.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 46.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 14 15 16 14 13 15 12 11 11 10 9 12 16 19 21 22 HEAT CONTENT 47 38 51 74 81 88 75 71 73 84 72 39 33 30 9 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 13 CX,CY: -11/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 702 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 91.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 40.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 6. 14. 23. 31. 37. 43. 47. 49. 49. 45. 43. 39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 1. -2. -5. -7. -10. -13. -14. -16. -18. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -3. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 5. 5. 4. 3. 1. 5. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 3. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 6. 9. 13. 12. 9. 4. -0. -4. -8. -9. -9. -9. -10. -9. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 15. 20. 29. 35. 39. 40. 41. 40. 39. 35. 32. 27. 26. 19. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 12.2 46.1 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942023 INVEST 10/18/23 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 5.9 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 21.6 45.1 to 6.7 0.61 3.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 58.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.36 1.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.75 3.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.20 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.9 to -3.0 0.55 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 135.6 27.0 to 144.1 0.93 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 99.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.59 1.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 113.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.81 1.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 2.1 109.3 to 0.0 0.98 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 39% is 3.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 3.9 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.6% 38.6% 19.6% 9.8% 8.0% 13.3% 14.5% 16.0% Logistic: 8.8% 33.9% 21.5% 8.6% 3.1% 6.1% 2.9% 1.1% Bayesian: 1.4% 4.1% 3.5% 0.6% 0.2% 1.6% 9.9% 0.5% Consensus: 4.9% 25.5% 14.9% 6.3% 3.8% 7.0% 9.1% 5.9% DTOPS: 1.0% 7.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% 7.0% 8.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942023 INVEST 10/18/23 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942023 INVEST 10/18/2023 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 34 39 45 50 59 65 69 70 71 70 69 65 62 57 56 49 18HR AGO 30 29 34 40 45 54 60 64 65 66 65 64 60 57 52 51 44 12HR AGO 30 27 26 32 37 46 52 56 57 58 57 56 52 49 44 43 36 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 25 34 40 44 45 46 45 44 40 37 32 31 24 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT