* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NORMA EP172023 10/18/23 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 64 72 80 86 90 85 75 61 57 50 48 41 33 27 24 20 V (KT) LAND 55 64 72 80 86 90 85 75 61 57 50 48 41 33 27 24 20 V (KT) LGEM 55 64 72 79 84 88 84 75 68 63 61 60 54 43 36 35 34 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 10 9 12 17 17 20 20 20 16 16 22 29 29 32 43 55 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -4 -2 3 4 7 5 7 5 0 2 5 2 5 8 -1 -3 SHEAR DIR 128 127 135 166 175 179 198 200 194 217 210 206 219 227 226 240 231 SST (C) 29.3 29.0 28.9 29.1 29.2 29.3 29.5 29.5 28.8 28.9 29.2 29.4 29.8 30.2 30.4 30.5 30.7 POT. INT. (KT) 156 153 152 154 155 155 158 158 151 152 154 155 159 163 165 165 167 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.4 -52.3 -51.9 -52.1 -51.7 -52.0 -51.5 -51.2 -51.4 -51.3 -50.9 -50.9 -51.4 -51.6 -52.9 -53.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.7 1.3 1.3 0.9 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 6 7 6 7 6 7 7 8 7 6 5 6 6 700-500 MB RH 80 80 77 76 70 62 55 52 47 43 39 36 36 36 33 27 30 MODEL VTX (KT) 21 22 23 25 26 26 24 23 20 22 20 21 16 9 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 35 38 38 46 44 63 52 52 36 22 18 25 35 47 63 36 48 200 MB DIV 150 149 165 154 144 126 53 21 1 21 22 21 35 54 17 24 7 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 3 4 3 1 0 -1 0 0 -3 7 14 3 LAND (KM) 675 637 602 555 514 464 447 422 362 237 126 61 61 52 54 76 106 LAT (DEG N) 13.9 14.4 14.9 15.5 16.1 16.9 17.7 18.7 19.7 20.8 21.8 22.4 22.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 107.8 108.0 108.2 108.3 108.4 108.5 108.9 109.3 109.6 109.9 110.1 109.9 109.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 6 6 5 4 5 5 6 5 4 2 3 2 2 1 2 HEAT CONTENT 23 21 21 24 32 42 51 43 23 27 30 28 29 31 32 32 33 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 6 CX,CY: -3/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 563 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 67.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. 7. 8. 10. 12. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -8. -10. -14. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 4. 6. 7. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. -3. 0. -3. -1. -7. -14. -18. -16. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. RI POTENTIAL 2. 5. 9. 13. 20. 18. 10. 2. -3. -7. -10. -12. -13. -12. -12. -11. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 9. 17. 25. 31. 35. 30. 20. 6. 2. -5. -7. -14. -22. -28. -31. -35. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 13.9 107.8 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP172023 NORMA 10/18/23 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 98.8 36.9 to 148.5 0.55 18.6 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 20.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.64 18.4 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 19.8 30.9 to 7.7 0.48 10.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 94.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.80 -20.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 152.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.96 19.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.93 18.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.77 12.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 24.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.21 2.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 49.8 to 0.0 1.00 6.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.2 to -2.3 0.58 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 65% is 10.3 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 85% is 6.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 85% is 9.9 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 77% is 12.4 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 50% is 11.8 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 75% is 11.2 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 44% is 7.5 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 65.1% 85.5% 85.3% 76.8% 49.6% 75.0% 44.5% 0.0% Logistic: 48.2% 62.5% 48.9% 45.7% 23.5% 31.9% 6.7% 1.3% Bayesian: 64.4% 54.9% 55.6% 44.3% 22.5% 15.5% 1.5% 0.0% Consensus: 59.2% 67.6% 63.3% 55.6% 31.9% 40.8% 17.6% 0.4% DTOPS: 56.0% 77.0% 65.0% 62.0% 38.0% 65.0% 34.0% 17.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172023 NORMA 10/18/23 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##