* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942023 10/18/23 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 40 46 52 58 66 71 73 73 73 70 67 67 68 66 68 56 V (KT) LAND 35 40 46 52 58 66 71 73 73 73 70 67 67 68 66 68 56 V (KT) LGEM 35 38 41 45 48 54 58 61 62 61 60 59 58 58 58 57 47 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 11 9 7 11 15 11 14 17 19 18 24 25 23 20 31 60 87 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 0 -1 1 3 8 15 4 0 0 1 5 5 7 10 18 11 SHEAR DIR 310 313 299 286 301 290 254 260 252 246 240 216 233 219 236 235 227 SST (C) 29.5 29.8 29.7 29.7 29.8 30.0 30.2 30.2 30.1 29.9 29.7 29.0 28.9 28.4 27.8 26.6 25.4 POT. INT. (KT) 163 168 166 165 167 171 173 172 171 167 163 152 150 144 136 124 112 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -52.8 -52.9 -53.0 -52.8 -52.2 -52.0 -51.5 -51.7 -51.5 -51.5 -51.4 -51.9 -51.7 -51.1 -50.3 -49.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.8 0.7 0.8 0.8 1.1 0.7 0.7 0.4 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 8 9 9 10 10 10 10 9 8 6 5 4 3 1 700-500 MB RH 68 68 66 61 58 57 52 53 58 60 60 55 45 41 37 36 43 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 17 19 20 21 21 21 20 21 21 20 20 22 24 24 29 25 850 MB ENV VOR 26 28 28 15 24 32 40 46 23 19 -7 -2 -2 12 54 148 101 200 MB DIV 115 114 100 79 48 79 46 0 24 13 37 43 64 73 69 55 42 700-850 TADV -6 -1 -5 -3 6 11 20 13 11 2 0 5 7 0 -7 -5 -20 LAND (KM) 907 847 806 695 554 299 163 42 24 163 343 544 757 987 1265 1592 1354 LAT (DEG N) 12.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 48.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 17 15 14 13 13 13 14 12 10 9 8 10 10 13 17 21 22 HEAT CONTENT 43 64 79 77 86 73 62 76 83 81 63 37 40 33 19 3 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 19 CX,CY: -18/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 760 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 86.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 43.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 6. 13. 21. 29. 35. 40. 43. 45. 45. 41. 38. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. -0. -4. -7. -10. -12. -14. -14. -14. -17. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -3. -5. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 1. 1. 3. 4. 4. 9. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 4. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 4. 7. 10. 14. 13. 10. 5. -0. -5. -8. -10. -10. -10. -11. -10. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 11. 17. 23. 31. 36. 38. 38. 38. 35. 32. 32. 33. 31. 33. 21. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 12.4 48.6 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942023 INVEST 10/18/23 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 8.5 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 20.6 45.1 to 6.7 0.64 4.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 69.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.43 2.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.68 3.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.33 1.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.9 to -3.0 0.52 1.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 130.6 27.0 to 144.1 0.88 1.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 91.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.56 1.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 143.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.78 2.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 4.9 109.3 to 0.0 0.96 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 45% is 4.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 27% is 3.9 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 4.2 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 18% is 4.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 17% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.4% 45.2% 26.5% 11.1% 8.6% 18.4% 15.6% 16.9% Logistic: 9.4% 25.0% 15.2% 4.6% 1.3% 3.6% 1.7% 1.0% Bayesian: 5.1% 8.3% 14.2% 1.9% 1.2% 6.4% 6.4% 0.4% Consensus: 7.0% 26.2% 18.6% 5.9% 3.7% 9.5% 7.9% 6.1% DTOPS: 2.0% 17.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 5.0% 3.0% 3.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942023 INVEST 10/18/23 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942023 INVEST 10/18/2023 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 3( 3) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 40 46 52 58 66 71 73 73 73 70 67 67 68 66 68 56 18HR AGO 35 34 40 46 52 60 65 67 67 67 64 61 61 62 60 62 50 12HR AGO 35 32 31 37 43 51 56 58 58 58 55 52 52 53 51 53 41 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 31 39 44 46 46 46 43 40 40 41 39 41 29 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT