* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NORMA EP172023 10/18/23 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 68 75 80 84 86 78 65 53 40 23 18 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 60 68 75 80 84 86 78 65 53 40 23 18 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 60 67 73 78 80 79 73 65 57 48 40 37 36 33 31 29 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 7 13 17 17 18 20 23 20 16 29 32 37 37 46 50 50 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -5 3 6 6 7 4 7 2 -1 7 6 5 2 3 2 0 SHEAR DIR 124 122 173 187 186 185 199 209 222 226 227 232 237 238 245 246 245 SST (C) 29.0 29.0 29.2 29.3 29.3 29.5 29.6 29.2 29.4 29.8 30.2 31.0 31.5 31.6 31.6 31.6 31.5 POT. INT. (KT) 153 153 155 156 155 158 159 155 157 161 164 168 167 167 167 167 168 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.1 -52.0 -52.0 -51.9 -51.7 -51.9 -51.3 -51.4 -51.4 -51.3 -51.5 -51.9 -52.2 -52.6 -53.8 -54.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.7 0.8 1.5 1.2 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 6 6 6 7 5 7 5 7 6 8 6 9 5 7 4 700-500 MB RH 79 76 74 68 64 57 52 47 43 39 34 27 21 22 22 22 15 MODEL VTX (KT) 25 24 26 27 27 26 23 21 20 14 5 3 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 42 44 50 46 45 55 41 31 16 20 14 19 20 12 45 24 7 200 MB DIV 144 161 156 126 114 46 -13 4 -23 41 -7 -20 -9 20 4 -24 -75 700-850 TADV 0 0 1 4 2 4 5 3 1 1 4 5 1 0 6 4 2 LAND (KM) 622 567 516 483 454 433 408 386 237 126 37 13 39 68 74 108 67 LAT (DEG N) 14.5 15.2 15.8 16.3 16.8 17.5 18.6 19.5 20.8 21.8 22.6 23.0 23.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 107.9 108.0 108.1 108.2 108.3 108.6 109.1 109.5 109.9 110.1 110.0 109.6 109.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 6 5 5 5 6 6 6 5 3 3 1 1 1 2 3 HEAT CONTENT 20 22 28 35 42 48 42 26 27 30 29 35 39 39 39 38 38 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):335/ 6 CX,CY: -2/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 582 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 62.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. -0. -0. -1. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -10. -13. -17. -22. -28. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 1. 1. 2. 1. -1. -5. -7. -15. -28. -28. -26. -24. -21. -20. -19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. RI POTENTIAL 2. 4. 8. 12. 19. 17. 9. 2. -2. -6. -9. -11. -11. -11. -11. -10. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 8. 15. 20. 24. 26. 18. 5. -7. -20. -37. -42. -44. -46. -50. -57. -64. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 14.5 107.9 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP172023 NORMA 10/18/23 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 94.5 36.9 to 148.5 0.52 14.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.56 13.1 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 23.4 30.9 to 7.7 0.32 6.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 151.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.74 -15.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 140.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.90 14.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.97 15.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.82 10.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 29.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.27 2.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 49.8 to 0.0 1.00 5.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.46 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 56% is 8.8 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 71% is 5.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 65% is 7.6 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 56% is 9.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 41% is 9.8 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 39% is 5.8 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 55.7% 71.3% 65.2% 55.8% 41.3% 39.2% 17.0% 0.0% Logistic: 49.2% 55.2% 39.1% 38.1% 12.6% 17.8% 1.0% 0.4% Bayesian: 42.0% 54.8% 56.5% 46.8% 20.4% 6.4% 0.5% 0.0% Consensus: 49.0% 60.4% 53.6% 46.9% 24.8% 21.1% 6.2% 0.1% DTOPS: 53.0% 73.0% 56.0% 46.0% 32.0% 57.0% 22.0% 2.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172023 NORMA 10/18/23 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##