* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942023 10/18/23 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 39 43 47 51 59 64 67 72 73 78 78 74 72 68 64 58 V (KT) LAND 35 39 43 47 51 59 64 67 72 73 78 78 74 72 68 64 58 V (KT) LGEM 35 37 40 42 45 50 53 56 58 60 63 64 60 57 55 53 47 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 10 10 11 16 12 11 11 16 9 21 19 27 15 28 42 48 43 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 0 0 0 13 13 2 5 1 4 5 3 -1 4 14 21 SHEAR DIR 296 286 277 300 295 236 238 240 228 229 232 234 235 224 236 238 228 SST (C) 29.8 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.9 30.2 30.3 30.3 30.0 30.0 30.0 29.7 29.0 28.7 26.9 25.8 25.2 POT. INT. (KT) 169 165 165 165 169 172 172 171 169 169 168 164 154 152 128 115 108 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.8 -53.0 -52.9 -52.4 -52.1 -51.7 -51.7 -51.5 -51.7 -51.4 -51.6 -51.7 -51.7 -51.7 -52.0 -51.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 9 9 9 10 11 10 10 9 9 8 7 4 3 2 3 700-500 MB RH 65 63 60 60 58 55 53 57 59 61 57 52 48 56 61 60 57 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 16 16 16 17 19 18 18 20 20 22 23 22 22 23 23 22 850 MB ENV VOR 32 33 23 26 31 30 29 32 26 15 8 14 -6 29 96 165 191 200 MB DIV 102 89 47 30 44 66 49 9 9 11 37 13 73 73 106 135 105 700-850 TADV -3 -7 -10 -2 2 8 18 9 7 3 2 2 5 0 -30 -31 -81 LAND (KM) 864 760 609 482 361 178 50 42 63 96 247 417 641 1027 1573 1501 1356 LAT (DEG N) 13.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 51.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 18 14 13 12 12 12 11 10 9 7 7 9 15 24 25 18 13 HEAT CONTENT 79 79 83 84 74 64 68 80 86 81 68 56 37 31 7 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 22 CX,CY: -21/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 835 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 71.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 35.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 13. 21. 28. 34. 39. 43. 45. 45. 41. 38. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 0. -1. -3. -7. -10. -11. -12. -13. -15. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 2. 2. 4. 2. 5. 6. 3. 2. 2. 2. -0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 7. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -3. -4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 6. 4. 1. -1. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 8. 11. 10. 7. 4. -0. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. -7. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 12. 16. 25. 29. 32. 37. 38. 43. 43. 39. 37. 33. 29. 23. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 13.0 51.0 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942023 INVEST 10/18/23 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 7.1 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 20.5 45.1 to 6.7 0.64 3.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 79.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.49 2.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.58 2.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.33 0.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.50 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 131.5 27.0 to 144.1 0.89 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 62.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.43 1.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 166.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.75 1.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 4.7 109.3 to 0.0 0.96 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 39% is 3.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 4.1 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 23% is 4.3 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.5% 39.2% 21.7% 10.4% 8.4% 14.7% 15.2% 22.6% Logistic: 9.2% 27.6% 18.6% 7.0% 2.3% 6.8% 3.2% 2.1% Bayesian: 2.2% 6.9% 8.6% 0.8% 0.9% 3.2% 9.8% 0.8% Consensus: 6.0% 24.6% 16.3% 6.0% 3.9% 8.2% 9.4% 8.5% DTOPS: 2.0% 9.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942023 INVEST 10/18/23 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942023 INVEST 10/18/2023 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 39 43 47 51 59 64 67 72 73 78 78 74 72 68 64 58 18HR AGO 35 34 38 42 46 54 59 62 67 68 73 73 69 67 63 59 53 12HR AGO 35 32 31 35 39 47 52 55 60 61 66 66 62 60 56 52 46 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 29 37 42 45 50 51 56 56 52 50 46 42 36 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT