* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NORMA EP172023 10/18/23 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 65 71 75 77 77 71 63 49 35 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 65 71 75 77 77 71 63 49 35 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 65 70 73 74 72 65 54 45 36 29 27 26 24 21 19 17 16 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 13 19 17 19 20 22 26 28 27 32 34 39 44 55 56 44 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 3 5 8 8 8 4 6 -1 1 3 8 4 9 0 0 0 SHEAR DIR 110 168 186 189 202 198 197 210 220 229 243 238 239 236 240 244 250 SST (C) 29.2 29.2 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.6 29.3 29.0 29.8 30.0 30.2 30.6 31.3 31.6 31.5 31.3 30.9 POT. INT. (KT) 156 155 156 156 156 159 156 153 161 160 163 168 168 168 168 167 167 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -51.8 -52.0 -51.9 -51.7 -51.9 -51.6 -51.3 -51.6 -51.7 -51.9 -52.3 -52.7 -52.9 -53.7 -54.1 -55.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.9 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 6 6 8 7 8 6 7 5 5 700-500 MB RH 76 73 66 61 59 51 50 43 41 34 26 24 21 20 22 15 11 MODEL VTX (KT) 26 27 27 27 27 22 21 16 12 4 3 4 3 3 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 46 53 49 49 64 52 47 20 16 9 -4 22 1 48 46 37 -12 200 MB DIV 160 162 146 104 91 -18 -9 -4 21 -9 -19 -30 19 13 4 -85 -38 700-850 TADV 1 1 3 3 7 9 6 1 0 -1 1 2 0 0 9 1 -1 LAND (KM) 547 500 460 433 407 379 386 295 148 93 109 87 12 54 75 22 -7 LAT (DEG N) 15.3 16.0 16.6 17.1 17.5 18.5 19.3 20.3 21.6 22.1 22.0 22.3 23.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 107.9 108.1 108.2 108.3 108.3 108.7 109.2 109.7 110.0 110.0 109.7 109.5 109.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 6 5 5 5 5 6 5 1 1 3 3 4 3 2 1 HEAT CONTENT 25 31 40 48 51 44 30 21 32 30 33 34 37 39 38 37 34 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):350/ 7 CX,CY: 0/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 577 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 37.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -4. -5. -4. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -10. -12. -15. -18. -23. -30. -35. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. -3. -5. -12. -20. -30. -31. -29. -27. -25. -23. -21. -20. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 3. 3. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 8. 4. 1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 6. 10. 12. 12. 6. -2. -16. -30. -45. -50. -51. -51. -54. -58. -65. -71. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 15.3 107.9 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP172023 NORMA 10/18/23 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 90.9 36.9 to 148.5 0.48 9.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 7.9 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 28.6 30.9 to 7.7 0.10 1.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 222.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.66 -9.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 132.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.86 9.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.90 9.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.89 8.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 39.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.36 2.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.8 49.8 to 0.0 0.98 3.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.45 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 43% is 6.9 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 56% is 4.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 42% is 4.9 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 31% is 5.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 5.2 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 23% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 43.2% 55.8% 42.0% 31.2% 22.0% 23.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 23.9% 31.0% 17.5% 15.8% 3.4% 4.5% 0.2% 0.1% Bayesian: 7.7% 35.3% 35.9% 19.1% 1.4% 1.3% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 24.9% 40.7% 31.8% 22.0% 8.9% 9.6% 0.1% 0.0% DTOPS: 49.0% 83.0% 71.0% 42.0% 36.0% 32.0% 2.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172023 NORMA 10/18/23 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##