* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912023 10/18/23 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 22 23 23 25 30 30 31 31 33 34 38 37 37 35 35 V (KT) LAND 20 21 22 23 23 25 30 30 31 31 33 34 38 37 37 35 35 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 20 20 19 19 18 18 17 16 16 16 16 17 18 18 19 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 21 24 24 23 22 24 24 22 24 25 21 18 20 19 22 23 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 1 4 4 3 0 -4 -1 -1 0 -3 -4 -4 -2 -2 0 1 SHEAR DIR 46 64 76 73 69 75 61 59 55 60 63 72 63 63 58 67 66 SST (C) 28.9 28.7 28.6 28.5 28.4 28.4 28.3 28.3 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.5 28.6 28.7 28.6 28.6 28.4 POT. INT. (KT) 151 148 147 146 146 146 144 143 144 145 145 147 148 148 146 147 145 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.4 -52.7 -52.9 -52.6 -52.9 -52.4 -52.8 -53.0 -53.0 -53.0 -52.8 -52.8 -52.9 -52.8 -52.8 -52.6 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 4 4 4 5 5 4 4 4 4 3 700-500 MB RH 77 81 83 83 84 82 79 78 72 69 64 63 65 70 71 76 77 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 9 9 10 11 11 13 10 9 8 7 7 8 7 8 7 8 850 MB ENV VOR -27 -21 -16 -16 -14 -15 -1 4 -2 2 5 -1 -6 -13 -8 -2 4 200 MB DIV 10 18 9 21 49 58 89 108 85 96 72 60 79 76 54 61 51 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 747 766 791 826 861 909 890 895 942 945 922 876 827 796 778 765 732 LAT (DEG N) 7.9 7.9 7.8 7.6 7.4 6.7 6.1 5.8 6.1 6.5 6.7 6.8 6.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 94.3 94.7 95.0 95.3 95.6 96.3 96.8 97.2 97.5 97.1 96.5 95.6 94.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 4 3 3 4 4 5 3 2 2 3 4 5 4 3 2 2 3 HEAT CONTENT 20 17 16 17 17 24 31 33 31 26 24 26 31 31 28 25 20 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 639 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 72.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. 1. 2. 11. 22. 33. 41. 47. 53. 57. 59. 59. 56. 51. 47. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -0. -1. -2. -8. -19. -29. -38. -43. -46. -48. -47. -42. -33. -25. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 11. 12. 13. 13. 13. 12. 9. 6. 3. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -5. -6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 5. 3. 2. 1. -1. -1. 0. -1. -0. -1. -0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 10. 10. 11. 11. 13. 14. 18. 17. 17. 15. 15. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 7.9 94.3 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP912023 INVEST 10/18/23 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 127.8 36.9 to 148.5 0.81 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 34.3 30.9 to 7.7 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 2.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.91 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 21.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.28 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.58 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 17.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.15 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 49.8 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.2 to -2.3 0.41 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 4.7% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.8% 11.9% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 1.6% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.3% 4.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912023 INVEST 10/18/23 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##