* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NORMA EP172023 10/19/23 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 80 85 87 85 80 68 54 38 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 80 85 87 85 80 68 54 38 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 80 85 86 83 77 64 52 39 31 27 25 23 20 20 24 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 13 16 17 18 21 23 23 26 28 34 37 41 49 59 63 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 8 9 8 8 6 6 2 -1 11 7 4 2 2 0 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 174 178 197 201 197 190 195 217 229 238 233 244 238 231 227 N/A N/A SST (C) 29.3 29.3 29.4 29.5 29.6 29.4 29.0 29.8 30.3 30.7 30.6 31.5 31.4 30.1 29.5 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 156 156 157 158 159 157 153 161 165 166 167 170 170 163 157 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -51.8 -51.6 -51.7 -51.5 -51.7 -51.3 -51.1 -51.0 -51.0 -51.7 -52.2 -52.3 -53.0 -53.1 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.9 1.0 1.3 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 7 4 7 5 7 6 9 6 8 5 7 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 71 64 61 58 55 52 49 42 35 28 21 19 21 23 29 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 30 31 31 30 26 23 19 12 5 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 52 45 47 60 58 40 28 12 17 4 9 14 30 65 68 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 164 138 90 59 13 -9 -1 -7 -17 -27 -27 -22 1 45 33 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 1 3 7 8 6 4 1 0 0 1 -1 -2 7 1 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 492 448 410 395 380 350 324 160 50 24 34 16 44 -45 -75 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.0 16.6 17.2 17.7 18.2 19.2 20.1 21.5 22.5 22.8 22.7 23.3 24.7 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 108.0 108.1 108.1 108.3 108.5 108.8 109.3 109.9 109.9 109.8 109.8 109.3 108.5 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 6 5 5 5 6 6 3 1 1 6 6 3 4 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 32 41 51 52 48 35 22 32 31 32 32 38 36 26 21 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):350/ 7 CX,CY: 0/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 578 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 16.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 1. -4. -8. -11. -16. -18. -21. -20. -19. -16. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -5. -7. -9. -9. -9. -9. -9. -11. -13. -16. -21. -28. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 5. 7. 7. 6. 5. 3. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. -3. -5. -11. -23. -36. -40. -39. -37. -34. -31. -28. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 7. 5. -0. -12. -25. -42. -58. -67. -69. -71. -70. -71. -75. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 80. LAT, LON: 16.0 108.0 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP172023 NORMA 10/19/23 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 77.2 36.9 to 148.5 0.36 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 20.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.64 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 33.5 30.9 to 7.7 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 348.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.52 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 92.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.65 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 80.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.70 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.86 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 44.8 2.7 to 103.4 0.42 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 7.5 49.8 to 0.0 0.85 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.47 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 1.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 23.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 22.2% 14.7% 8.6% 7.5% 1.0% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 38.1% 22.8% 22.1% 18.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 20.1% 20.4% 10.2% 8.7% 0.3% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 39.0% 37.0% 19.0% 9.0% 7.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172023 NORMA 10/19/23 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##