* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912023 10/19/23 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 22 23 24 28 31 35 37 39 41 43 46 47 45 44 44 V (KT) LAND 20 21 22 23 24 28 31 35 37 39 41 43 46 47 45 44 44 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 20 20 20 19 19 20 20 20 20 22 24 26 28 31 33 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 21 20 19 19 22 17 21 24 20 22 20 19 18 25 25 32 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 5 4 4 2 -2 -1 -3 3 0 -2 -5 -2 -4 -1 -4 -1 SHEAR DIR 62 78 75 77 78 74 57 68 68 66 70 67 64 68 73 75 78 SST (C) 28.8 28.6 28.4 28.3 28.3 28.4 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.4 28.5 28.8 29.0 28.9 28.7 28.6 POT. INT. (KT) 149 148 146 145 145 146 146 145 146 147 146 148 151 152 151 149 148 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.6 -52.7 -52.5 -52.4 -52.8 -52.2 -53.3 -52.7 -53.1 -52.6 -53.1 -52.6 -52.9 -52.4 -52.7 -52.2 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 4 4 5 4 5 700-500 MB RH 82 84 83 84 83 81 79 75 71 68 64 65 69 73 76 78 82 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 10 11 11 11 12 11 11 9 9 8 9 9 11 11 11 12 850 MB ENV VOR -18 -10 -10 -13 -12 -5 8 -2 8 11 3 0 4 -2 10 22 35 200 MB DIV 7 8 32 74 82 65 95 93 109 81 67 64 80 61 62 63 118 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1 0 0 0 0 1 LAND (KM) 727 747 777 808 859 963 982 997 1007 967 929 846 773 701 648 586 524 LAT (DEG N) 8.2 8.2 8.1 8.0 7.7 7.0 6.5 6.4 6.7 7.0 7.2 7.4 7.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 94.5 94.9 95.3 95.7 96.1 96.9 97.6 97.9 97.9 97.4 96.5 95.3 94.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 3 4 4 4 5 5 3 1 2 4 5 6 6 5 5 5 4 HEAT CONTENT 17 14 12 11 12 20 27 29 27 21 17 19 24 22 16 11 10 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 2 CX,CY: -1/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 674 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 71.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 11. 22. 32. 40. 47. 52. 56. 59. 59. 57. 53. 49. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. -0. -1. -6. -14. -24. -31. -35. -38. -40. -39. -35. -29. -24. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 9. 11. 12. 13. 14. 13. 12. 9. 6. 4. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -5. -6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 8. 11. 15. 17. 19. 21. 23. 26. 27. 25. 24. 24. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 8.2 94.5 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP912023 INVEST 10/19/23 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 126.6 36.9 to 148.5 0.80 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 32.1 30.9 to 7.7 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : -2.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.91 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 40.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.38 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.60 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 13.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.10 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 49.8 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.46 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 2.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 2.1% 15.7% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.7% 5.2% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912023 INVEST 10/19/23 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##