* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TAMMY AL202023 10/19/23 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 48 52 55 57 62 66 70 72 80 81 84 79 79 72 73 80 V (KT) LAND 45 48 52 55 57 62 66 70 72 80 81 84 79 79 72 73 80 V (KT) LGEM 45 49 51 54 56 59 62 65 69 73 76 76 73 67 57 47 38 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 15 12 8 11 15 5 10 11 20 10 21 19 38 60 63 90 114 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 4 2 2 5 12 8 3 0 2 6 6 -4 1 12 -3 -26 SHEAR DIR 293 285 273 262 265 267 259 263 244 249 237 204 211 214 241 250 260 SST (C) 29.7 29.7 29.8 30.0 30.2 30.1 30.2 30.0 30.0 29.6 29.0 28.8 27.5 25.5 24.3 21.1 16.8 POT. INT. (KT) 165 164 166 169 171 171 171 169 169 162 153 152 136 116 108 91 79 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.7 -52.2 -52.4 -52.5 -51.8 -51.7 -51.3 -51.7 -51.5 -51.7 -51.8 -51.7 -51.7 -52.9 -54.1 -52.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.9 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.6 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 9 10 10 9 9 9 8 6 3 2 1 0 0 700-500 MB RH 59 60 59 56 54 56 57 59 61 60 55 52 59 57 53 51 48 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 16 16 16 16 18 18 18 19 22 23 26 27 31 29 29 33 850 MB ENV VOR 18 20 27 20 18 26 18 2 0 -17 0 21 71 156 81 -73 -64 200 MB DIV 62 50 74 83 65 76 24 13 15 68 23 51 82 127 99 105 15 700-850 TADV -11 -10 -4 -4 0 8 1 3 0 6 7 10 -12 -77 -1 10 -75 LAND (KM) 587 481 379 294 224 152 86 48 158 320 525 870 1372 1427 1136 1224 1574 LAT (DEG N) 13.4 13.7 13.9 14.2 14.4 15.2 16.5 18.0 19.7 21.5 23.4 26.2 29.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 54.0 55.0 56.0 56.9 57.8 59.6 61.1 62.2 62.9 63.4 63.4 61.7 58.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 10 10 9 9 10 9 9 9 10 12 20 28 34 36 35 34 HEAT CONTENT 85 84 75 73 70 63 76 77 84 68 38 36 16 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 710 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 71.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 26.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 12. 18. 24. 28. 32. 35. 35. 33. 27. 24. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. -0. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -9. -8. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 2. 2. 6. 6. 11. 7. 7. 11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 3. 1. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 6. 5. 2. -0. -2. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 10. 12. 17. 21. 25. 27. 35. 36. 39. 34. 34. 27. 28. 35. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 13.4 54.0 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL202023 TAMMY 10/19/23 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 7.4 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 23.4 45.1 to 6.7 0.56 3.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 77.4 0.0 to 161.7 0.48 2.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.47 2.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.60 1.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.9 to -3.0 0.37 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 120.7 27.0 to 144.1 0.80 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 66.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.45 1.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 243.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.67 1.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 3.1 109.3 to 0.0 0.97 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 37% is 3.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 4.1 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 21% is 4.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 27% is 5.1 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.2% 37.4% 20.5% 10.4% 8.2% 16.0% 20.7% 27.1% Logistic: 8.2% 16.8% 10.5% 4.8% 1.4% 5.6% 3.7% 2.5% Bayesian: 6.0% 10.0% 8.0% 0.8% 0.6% 2.8% 3.3% 0.3% Consensus: 7.2% 21.4% 13.0% 5.3% 3.4% 8.2% 9.3% 10.0% DTOPS: 5.0% 19.0% 13.0% 6.0% 2.0% 3.0% 3.0% 8.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL202023 TAMMY 10/19/23 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL202023 TAMMY 10/19/2023 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 48 52 55 57 62 66 70 72 80 81 84 79 79 72 73 80 18HR AGO 45 44 48 51 53 58 62 66 68 76 77 80 75 75 68 69 76 12HR AGO 45 42 41 44 46 51 55 59 61 69 70 73 68 68 61 62 69 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 37 42 46 50 52 60 61 64 59 59 52 53 60 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT