* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NORMA EP172023 10/19/23 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 105 113 112 106 95 74 54 39 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 105 113 112 106 95 74 54 39 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 105 113 111 103 93 73 58 44 35 29 31 27 24 21 24 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 15 21 22 20 24 25 27 27 31 35 37 40 48 56 64 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 11 9 9 10 7 4 6 0 2 9 10 7 6 0 -1 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 190 192 203 199 200 204 209 221 222 234 238 253 237 228 224 N/A N/A SST (C) 29.3 29.4 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.1 29.7 30.4 30.8 31.2 31.5 31.6 31.5 30.6 28.9 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 156 157 158 158 158 155 161 167 167 167 167 168 169 169 151 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.6 -51.6 -51.6 -51.7 -51.5 -50.9 -50.9 -50.9 -51.1 -51.8 -52.3 -53.0 -52.9 -52.7 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.8 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.3 0.2 -0.3 -0.2 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 7 7 5 6 5 6 6 7 7 8 7 6 6 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 66 60 57 55 52 50 47 42 36 31 25 21 22 24 29 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 30 31 29 28 26 24 18 14 5 4 3 2 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 49 47 64 66 52 44 25 26 14 18 35 15 50 60 85 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 136 93 53 18 -29 12 -11 37 -9 -18 -30 -12 13 32 31 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 3 7 8 12 10 1 1 0 2 2 0 -2 5 4 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 460 424 393 378 364 370 196 54 4 -8 14 66 67 -22 -127 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.4 17.0 17.6 18.1 18.6 19.7 21.2 22.5 23.0 23.2 23.4 23.6 24.0 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 108.0 108.1 108.2 108.4 108.6 109.2 109.7 109.8 109.8 109.6 109.3 108.8 108.1 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 6 5 6 7 7 4 2 1 2 3 4 4 5 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 38 48 52 50 44 25 30 32 33 36 39 39 37 31 6 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):355/ 5 CX,CY: 0/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 604 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 0. -5. -13. -20. -28. -36. -43. -48. -48. -47. -45. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -7. -11. -15. -19. -19. -16. -14. -12. -12. -13. -15. -20. -27. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -5. -5. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 10. 14. 14. 12. 8. 3. -2. -5. -5. -5. -7. -7. -7. -8. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -1. -3. -5. -12. -20. -34. -36. -36. -36. -34. -30. -28. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 4. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 8. 7. 1. -10. -30. -51. -66. -84. -91. -94. -99. -99. -100. -105. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 105. LAT, LON: 16.4 108.0 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP172023 NORMA 10/19/23 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 52.4 36.9 to 148.5 0.14 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 40.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.94 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 38.5 30.9 to 7.7 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 509.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.34 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 54.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.45 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 105.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.91 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 46.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.43 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 6.1 49.8 to 0.0 0.88 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.47 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 33.4% 8.8% 6.2% 5.7% 0.9% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 3.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 12.2% 3.0% 2.1% 1.9% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 28.0% 4.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172023 NORMA 10/19/23 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##