* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912023 10/19/23 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 23 24 26 31 35 39 41 44 47 51 54 54 52 53 54 V (KT) LAND 20 22 23 24 26 31 35 39 41 44 47 51 54 54 52 53 54 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 20 20 20 21 22 23 22 22 22 24 28 33 37 43 49 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 21 17 18 19 17 16 23 21 23 19 19 16 16 22 23 21 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 4 4 3 1 4 5 3 3 2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -4 0 2 SHEAR DIR 78 79 83 79 74 63 70 70 75 64 74 71 66 75 88 87 90 SST (C) 28.8 28.7 28.5 28.2 28.2 28.4 28.5 28.4 28.2 28.4 29.0 29.3 28.8 28.6 29.3 29.1 29.4 POT. INT. (KT) 149 148 147 144 144 145 144 145 144 147 154 156 151 149 156 153 157 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.5 -52.3 -52.1 -52.6 -52.3 -52.7 -52.8 -52.9 -52.8 -52.7 -52.6 -52.6 -52.3 -52.4 -52.1 -52.4 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 6 5 5 6 5 6 4 700-500 MB RH 84 83 84 84 83 81 76 76 72 68 69 72 77 79 83 86 87 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 12 12 12 12 13 13 13 11 11 10 11 11 11 11 13 14 850 MB ENV VOR -7 -7 -10 -8 -8 4 4 5 13 9 9 21 49 45 51 56 74 200 MB DIV 19 45 90 101 99 121 104 114 108 76 87 90 78 96 94 84 80 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1 -1 0 0 -1 0 0 -1 0 0 -1 LAND (KM) 711 717 748 794 840 918 943 909 862 788 702 588 497 373 260 136 36 LAT (DEG N) 8.4 8.5 8.4 8.2 7.9 7.4 7.2 7.5 7.9 8.1 8.3 8.9 9.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 94.6 94.9 95.3 95.8 96.1 96.8 97.2 97.1 96.5 95.5 94.2 92.9 91.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 3 3 5 5 5 4 1 2 4 6 7 7 7 6 6 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 15 13 11 10 10 15 18 15 10 11 18 19 12 10 20 22 23 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 3 CX,CY: -1/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 666 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 84.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. 1. 2. 10. 21. 31. 39. 45. 51. 55. 57. 58. 56. 53. 51. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. -0. -4. -12. -21. -28. -32. -34. -36. -34. -31. -25. -19. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 11. 13. 14. 14. 13. 12. 9. 6. 4. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -4. -4. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. -0. -1. -3. -0. -1. -0. -0. 1. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 1. -0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 4. 6. 11. 15. 19. 21. 24. 27. 31. 34. 34. 32. 33. 34. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 8.4 94.6 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP912023 INVEST 10/19/23 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 126.5 36.9 to 148.5 0.80 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 30.1 30.9 to 7.7 0.03 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 2.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.91 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 70.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.54 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.47 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 11.8 2.7 to 103.4 0.09 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 49.8 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.2 to -2.3 0.59 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.8% 10.1% 1.4% 0.6% 0.1% 1.1% 3.3% 13.2% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.3% 3.5% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.4% 1.1% 4.4% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912023 INVEST 10/19/23 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##