* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NORMA EP172023 10/19/23 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 115 119 116 106 94 71 54 32 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 115 119 116 106 94 71 54 32 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 115 118 112 101 90 71 55 43 35 31 29 26 23 24 26 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 18 20 19 23 26 25 27 27 37 41 40 44 57 68 73 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 14 14 12 9 6 6 1 1 6 5 7 5 1 -7 -10 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 194 191 195 196 198 199 220 217 227 231 245 239 234 224 218 N/A N/A SST (C) 29.5 29.5 29.6 29.5 29.4 29.1 30.1 30.7 30.8 30.9 30.9 31.0 30.7 29.0 28.8 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 158 158 159 158 157 155 164 168 167 167 168 168 169 153 151 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.7 -51.6 -51.7 -51.7 -51.0 -51.0 -50.7 -50.6 -51.0 -51.7 -52.4 -53.1 -52.9 -53.1 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.1 0.9 1.0 0.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 5 4 7 5 7 6 9 6 9 5 7 6 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 60 57 54 52 52 49 46 41 34 27 22 22 22 29 33 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 32 30 28 25 23 20 19 9 5 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 50 68 71 55 48 36 33 25 18 36 35 22 69 68 80 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 91 56 13 -31 -11 7 14 16 -18 -18 -29 7 23 20 21 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 4 8 10 9 9 4 0 3 1 2 0 0 3 3 12 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 375 345 320 310 303 281 141 57 16 34 94 82 15 -97 -223 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.0 17.6 18.2 18.7 19.2 20.6 21.9 22.8 23.3 23.5 23.5 23.7 24.4 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 107.5 107.7 107.8 108.1 108.3 109.0 109.2 109.1 109.3 109.1 108.5 108.0 107.8 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 6 6 7 7 6 3 1 2 2 3 4 6 6 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 53 57 52 44 36 21 31 33 33 34 34 34 32 18 14 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 5/ 6 CX,CY: 1/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 546 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 4.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -2. -8. -17. -27. -36. -45. -50. -54. -53. -53. -50. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -4. -8. -13. -17. -22. -21. -18. -14. -13. -12. -13. -17. -22. -30. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 9. 13. 13. 10. 6. 1. -4. -6. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -9. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -2. -5. -6. -8. -12. -28. -37. -40. -40. -38. -35. -32. -29. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 1. -9. -21. -44. -61. -83. -98. -104. -107. -108. -107. -108. -114. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 115. LAT, LON: 17.0 107.5 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP172023 NORMA 10/19/23 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 43.2 36.9 to 148.5 0.06 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 35.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.86 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 40.5 30.9 to 7.7 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 581.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.26 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 23.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.29 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 115.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.23 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 4.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.93 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 48.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.45 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 3.0 49.8 to 0.0 0.94 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.0 2.2 to -2.3 0.50 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 28.9% 5.7% 3.8% 2.6% 0.5% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 2.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 10.6% 1.9% 1.3% 0.9% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 4.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172023 NORMA 10/19/23 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##